Rudy’s road to the White House

Giuliani’s delegate path is much less tricky than Clinton’s. Thanks to the decision by all the Democrats to abide by the four-state pledge of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, virtually ignoring two bigger states, Florida and Michigan, Clinton has a ton of pitfalls.

Sure, she can put her race away in one fell swoop with a victory in Iowa, but so can Giuliani. But it’s not about whether Clinton can benefit from a victory; the question is which of the two frontrunners is better positioned to survive a loss in the early stages.

And unquestionably, Giuliani is much better position to survive early losses than Clinton, which is the most important way to look at this primary calendar right now.

As someone who has seen “Wedding Crashers” way too much, I probably can quote more lines from that movie than a normal human being should. But the one line that I can hearing in my head regarding Clinton and Iowa is during the touch football scene when Mr. Self-sustaining scallop farm boy taunts Vince Vaughn’s character with “Big Tree Fall Hard.”

A Clinton loss in Iowa, particularly if she’s behind BOTH Barack Obama and John Edwards could be just that, “a big tree” falling hard and, more importantly, harder to resurrect.

Giuliani doesn’t have the same potholes in his road. Sure, he’s going to have a hard time winning Iowa or New Hampshire, but Giuliani has a built-in safety nets in Florida and Michigan, two big states where Giuliani seems to have the opportunity to consolidate more marginal Republican primary voters (the current strength of his support).

Part of Giuliani’s strength is the fundamental weakness of his opponents. Compare Mitt Romney and Thompson to Obama and Edwards; both Democrats are much more formidable nationally, at least in polling, than either Romney or Thompson. That perception is particularly important to Republicans; more important, frankly, than I think polls are showing. Republican primary voters are conditioned to believe in their principles over electability but that doesn’t mean they won’t compromise in what they think is principled and Giuliani’s views on terrorism could be enough. If neither Romney nor Thompson look like a winner, I have a hard time believing their support will hold, let alone grow.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) Oct. 27, 2009 July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

Meanwhile, both of Clinton’s chief challengers have a perception to be a national candidate, Edwards due his standing as the VP nominee and Obama simply due to his celebrity and money.

As a political analyst who hopes to be in this business for years, if not decades, it’s going to be fascinating to watch a Giuliani nomination (if it happens) play out as far as the future of the Republican Party is concerned.

Many have believed the Democratic Party is on verge of doing something historical and as far as race and gender are concerned, it’s very likely the party will make history. But no matter whom the Democrats nominate, they won’t have the same ideologically-changing effect on the Democrats that a Giuliani nomination will on the GOP. Should Giuliani win the general, it could transform GOP in ways ideologically that reshapes the stereotype among the media of the type of candidate who can win a Republican nomination. If Giuliani loses the general, the conservative wing of the GOP will argue that the loss was due, in part, to the lack of ideological purity on Rudy’s part. And that could divide the Republicans for a few more elections causing them lots of problems.

But I’m not getting ahead of myself. Bottom line: Don’t underestimate Giuliani’s frontrunner status. He’s positioned himself in Iowa where 2^nd (or even a strong third) will look like a positive. Clinton is not in that same situation. And once the fallout from Iowa is felt nationally, it’s a whole new ballgame.

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

MORE FROM POLITICS

Politics Section Front

Senate clears last hurdle before final health vote No pity parties for senators working overtime   Gates proposes $2 billion for unstable countries Did Obama campaign on the public option? Guantanamo prison may stay open until 2011 AIG bonus return pledge goes mostly unfulfilled Abortion looms as possible health bill deal killer Obama rejects criticism on health legislation Fighting breast cancer, Teresa Heinz urges tests   Ex-President Carter offers apology to Jews Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: