‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Sept. 9, 2007

MR. TIM RUSSERT:  Our issues this Sunday:  The top U.S. commander in Iraq, Army General David Petraeus, will testify before Congress tomorrow after the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq reports that Iraq’s army will not be able to secure their own country for at least a year and that the Iraq national police force is dysfunctional, corrupt and should be disbanded. With us, an exclusive interview with two of the men who wrote the report, the chairman, retired Marine General James Jones, and the former police commissioner of Washington D.C., Charles Ramsey.

Then, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was in Iraq this week.  Democratic Senator Joe Biden shares his finding this morning on MEET THE PRESS.

And former Senator Fred Thompson finally enters the presidential race.

(Videotape, September 5, 2007)

FMR. SEN. FRED THOMPSON (R-TN) I’m running for president of the United States.

MR. JAY LENO:  All right!

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  As the other Republican candidates exchange fire in a New Hampshire debate.

(Videotape, September 5, 2007)

MR. MITT ROMNEY:  The surge is apparently working.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN:  No, not apparently.  It’s working.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Senator Larry Craig says again he’ll retire.  Is this time for real?  Bill campaigns for Hillary; Oprah for Barack.  And the Democrats gather in Miami tonight for another debate.  Insights and analysis from David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network and John Harwood of The Wall Street Journal and CNBC.

But first, the war in Iraq.  An independent commission has now reported to Congress and the president about the state of readiness of the Iraqi army and the national police force.  Here to share those findings are retired Marine General James Jones, former D.C. police commissioner Charles Ramsey.

Gentlemen, welcome both.

GEN. JAMES JONES, (Ret.):  Thank you, sir.

CHIEF CHARLES RAMSEY:  Thank you.

MR. RUSSERT:  For the last 90 days you have studied this issue, including three weeks on the ground in Iraq.  Here is what you came up with in terms of Iraqi security forces:  the military, army, special forces, navy, air force--152,000 members under the authority of the Iraqi Ministry of Defense; the Iraqi police—that’s both local Iraqi police service and the national police--194,000 members administered by the Iraqi minister of the interior. And the conclusion that you reached is as follows:  “The Iraqi Security Forces will be unable to fulfill their essential security responsibilities independently over the next 12 to 18 months.”

General, explain that.

GEN. JONES:  Well, we had, really, four taskings to our, to our commission. One is to evaluate that particular, that particular mission set, but also the ability that they would be able to bring—to deny safe haven to terrorists on an increasing basis, the ability to bring an end to sectarian violence, to achieve national reconciliation, and their ability to assume responsibility for maintaining the territorial integrity.

We, we found that on, on two of those, they probably could do more than they’re doing now, and they’re on the right track.  We think that, that over the next year, year and a half, they will be able to increasingly bring greater security internally against the terrorists.  But we, we view the growth of the Iraqi army as a, as a two-step process.  The first is to take care of what’s going on in Iraq—the insurgents, the terrorists, the crime—and then gradually do what most armies do and, and take over responsibility for defense of the nation, while the police forces take over the, the internal security.  That second piece is going to take longer, and that’s the point.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me stay on the army for a second.  The bottom line is that, in 12 to 18 months, you say that they will be capable of taking on more security responsibilities.  But how long before the Iraqi army will be capable to secure the country without US troops?

GEN. JONES:  That’s a function of three—a couple of things.  One is the ability of a government to achieve genuine national reconciliation, which will solve a lot of the internal problems.  When that happens, the army will be able to take care of the borders and turn their, turn their attention to the borders, which is critically needed, in our view.  And the police, hopefully, will, will be able to take care of the internal sector, the peace and stability.  Our guess, our assessment was that, while they won’t be able to do the territorial defense in the next 12 to 16 months, or 18 months, that it’s probably a three to four year project for them.

MR. RUSSERT:  So there will be a need, in your mind, for US troops on the ground in Iraq for at least three to four years?

GEN. JONES:  Well, it depends on what the external threats are.  We’re, we’re very concerned about the increasing role of Iran, that Iran is playing, particularly in the south of the country.  We’re—we’ve always been concerned about Syria as a gateway for foreign fighters.  And—but the, the good news, to the extent that there is good news, is that the Iraqi army is going to be increasingly able to, with the police force, to bring about internal security. We believe that, that more attention should be put on the borders and that that might be a way to take the coalition and bring our technological means to bear, and re-mission, re-task the force as this improved army capability comes on line.

MR. RUSSERT:  But the debate we’re having in this country and in Congress now is the president has said repeatedly when the Iraqis stand up, the Americans stand down.  Your best judgment is it’s going to take at least three to four years for the Iraqi army to stand up in a way that all the American troops can stand down.

GEN. JONES:  I think that’s, I think that’s probably reasonable. It’s—there’s no magic formula here.  It depends on the, the rate of progress, it depends on the international ability to convince Iran and Syria to help rather than hinder the, the recovery in Iraq, and that’s not happening right now.

MR. RUSSERT:  You know, General Petraeus, back in September of ‘04, wrote an op-ed piece for The Washington Post, and he said this:  “I see tangible progress.  There are reasons for optimism.  Today approximately 164,000 Iraqi police and soldiers and an additional 74,000 facility protection forces are performing a wide variety of” “missions.  Equipment’s being delivered. Training” “on track,” “increasing” “capacity.  Infrastructure’s being repaired.  Command and control structures and institutions” “being re-established.” That was three years ago.  It sounds as if very little has improved since he wrote that three years ago.

GEN. JONES:  There were three things that impressed us, Tim.  One is that the surge, as a tactic in, in the, in the Baghdad region has had some, has had some positive effect.  It has shown that the Iraqi army can, in fact, engage and, and is willing to fight and, and do what needs to be done.  The Iraqi army is going to grow by a third by next year.  That’s their ambition.  I think they can do that.  The ministry of defense is functioning pretty much as you would like to see a ministry.  But the, the missing piece is the, the reconciliation that the government has not been able to achieve.  And, as Chief Ramsey will point out, the police force, particularly the national police, needs, needs, as we said, reform and reorganization, and the police, in general in the country, need to have better equipment, better training and better assets.

MR. RUSSERT:  I want to talk about the police with Police Chief Ramsey because he’s a specialist on that area.  This is how The Washington Post reported how an American commander on the ground responded to your recommendation that the national police force—about 25,000 members—be disbanded:  “Senior US military commanders in Iraq rejected an independent” commission “recommendation to disband the 25,000-strong Iraqi national police force, saying that despite sectarian influences the force is improving and that removing it would create dangerous security vacuums in key regions of the country.

“‘We are way past the point where we just fire everyone and start over,’ said Major General Rick Lynch, who commands US military forces in a large swath of central Iraq, where he seeks to have five more police battalions assigned.”

The Iraqi government also said, “We don’t need the commission dictating to us.” What say you?

MR. RAMSEY:  Well, I don’t know if he read the entire report or not, but certainly with the national police—and I think we need to put this in context—you have the Iraqi police service, which has about 230,000 members, as we could tell, and the national police that have 25,000.  It’s the national police that we’re focusing on in our report in terms of, of disbanding and then reorganizing with a totally different mission.  They’re highly sectarian, about 85 percent Shia, 13 percent Sui—Sunni.  They’re disliked throughout the country.  Just last year, last October, an entire brigade was disbanded after they were accused of participating in the kidnapping of 26 Sunnis and the killing of seven of those individuals.  They have a lot of very, very serious issues within the national police.  And when you talk to people on the ground, when you get below the level of general and talk to the people that are actually out there working with these folks on a regular basis, it is very striking just how much they’re distrusted by not only by the military people, but the civilians that are in charge of their training, I mean, just across the board.

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