‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Aug. 26, 2007

MR. RUSSERT:  If the president recommends continuation of the status quo, would that trigger a rebellion amongst the Republicans in the Senate?

SEN. WARNER:  I’m not going to bite on that one.  We’re going to be respectful of this constitutional process in our country.  As I say, I had a hand in writing the law requiring these various steps to take place.  I think, in due respect to the office of the president, let him make the decisions and then we’ll speak.

MR. RUSSERT:  You have served in the Senate for 28 distinguished years, you’re 80 years old, you’re up for re-election next year.  Are you going to run?

SEN. WARNER:  Well, what do you think I should do?

MR. RUSSERT:  Well, the...

SEN. WARNER:  Yeah, how about that?  Come on.  You put yourself up as the number one nation’s political pundit.

MR. RUSSERT:  Never do.

SEN. WARNER:  What would you do if you were 80 years old?

MR. RUSSERT:  I just ask the questions.

SEN. WARNER:  You do?  Well, I’ll give you the answer.  Wait till September.

MR. RUSSERT:  That’s five days away.

SEN. WARNER:  That’s all right.  Wait till September.

MR. RUSSERT:  The rich...

SEN. WARNER:  I made a commitment.  This is serious business.  You know, the Senate—I had the privilege—it’s been the greatest privilege I think a man or woman can have to serve in that marvelous institution.  Five terms, the people of Virginia have stood with me strongly.  Now I’ve got to go out and assess, and each day for six months, I’ve kept a little diary.  I feel this way—not physically, but mentally—should I stay, should I not.  But the Senate requires you to go full-bore six or seven days a week, tremendous energy.  Go to Iraq, jump in and out of helicopters, get on the cargo planes, no sleep. And that’s in different things we’ve got to do all around.  And I’ve got to assess at this age whether it is fair to Virginia to ask for a contract for another six years.

MR. RUSSERT:  That sounds like a lot to ask a man between the ages of 80 and 86.

SEN. WARNER:  That is correct.

MR. RUSSERT:  So...

SEN. WARNER:  But anyway, I’m going to make that decision, and I’m going to do what’s right for my state and my country in terms of running again.  I’m confident that I can run a good, strong campaign.  But then I’ve got to also say to Virginia, “On the eve of my 88^th birthday, I’m still going seven days, seven nights with full steam.” I might be able to do it.

MR. RUSSERT:  Which way...

SEN. WARNER:  Stand by.

MR. RUSSERT:  Which way you leaning?

SEN. WARNER:  My dear friend, I’ll go back and make a little diary entry after this day, but I’ll keep that counsel to myself.

MR. RUSSERT:  Senator John Warner, as always, we thank you for joining us and sharing your views.

SEN. WARNER:  You bet.

MR. RUSSERT:  Coming next, a hardheaded analysis of Iraq from three reporters who have been there and have written extensively about it.  Then Lance Armstrong, champion cyclist, cancer survivor turned political activist, on the issue of cancer.  He will ask the presidential candidates about that issue next only on MEET THE PRESS.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  Our journalist round table, then Lance Armstrong on the politics in the fight against cancer, after this brief station break.

(Announcements)

MR. RUSSERT:  And we’re back.

Welcome, all.

Let me start, Tom Ricks, your paperback edition of “Fiasco” is out.  You wrote a postscript for this book in April, and I want to use it to frame our discussion.  It’s astonished—“It astonishes me that in early 2007 it appears” “the two most likely outcomes of the current turmoil in Iraq are either that the country will break up, or that Sadr—an anti-American ally of Hezbollah—will become the country’s ruler.  However, neither of those events is likely to end the violence, but rather simply to open a new and even more dangerous phase.” You still stand by that?

MR. THOMAS RICKS:  Yeah.  What strikes me is that all of the options carry bigger downsides than benefits, and things that look like solutions in the short term carry the prospect of long-term violence.  I think that’s true of every single policy option out there, and so I think the beginning of wisdom is to understand that we—there are no good options.  All we have to now think about is what is the least bad option.

MR. RUSSERT:  Michael Gordon, since you wrote “Cobra II:  The Inside Story of the Invasion And Occupation of Iraq,” what’s your current thinking about how it’s going to end?

MR. MICHAEL GORDON:  Well, I spent most of the summer in Iraq in Diyala province and then south of Baghdad, and really a lot has changed on the security front in Iraq.  And there’s been a very important development which has been the enabling of the Sunni tribes and some of the former insurgents. This is not just in Anbar.  And there’s a very delicate political game under way right now to try to find a way to connect these disparate Sunni groups who are working with the American military, with the Maliki government, and that’s a work in progress.  It’s really just in the early phases.

MR. RUSSERT:  If we, in fact, are arming the Sunnis and we’ve already armed the Shiites, are we arming both factions in a civil war?

MR. GORDON:  Well, we’re not arming these groups.  They’re not being given arms by the Americans, but you’re pointing to one of the very real risks.  I mean, the potential here is by organizing these Sunni groups in Baquba and...(unintelligible)...and...(unintelligible)...and all sorts of places in Iraq, we do have a mechanism to provide local security and really to drive out al-Qaeda of Iraq.  The downside is unless this becomes institutionalized and these people become either Iraqi police or somehow approved by the Iraqi government, we might be setting the stage for more intensified civil war.

MR. RUSSERT:  Richard Engel, I, I quoted your conversation with Prime Minister Maliki to Senator Warner, saying that Sadr, the leader of the Shiite militias, is of the same school.

MR. RICHARD ENGEL:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  Joe Klein in Time magazine wrote this, that “US Ambassador Ryan Crocker” said, “‘The fall of the Maliki government, when it happens, might be a good thing.’” And then Klein asks, “But replace it with what?” Half of Maliki’s Cabinet has abandoned his government.  Are his days numbered?

MR. ENGEL:  His days are certainly numbered.  This government is going to collapse.  The problem is, it’s going to take several months to form a new government.  And there’s a very likely and real possibility that you could have a series of unstable governments that come and then collapse, sort of like a parliamentary system you may have had in Italy in the 1980s.  And that weak political structure is not one that is suitable for Iraq’s problems.  I think we need to totally change the, the rules of the game and change the political structure in such that the president or the prime minister has much more authority.  This idea of a power-sharing government, while it may be the pinnacle of democracy, is not one that is strong enough to get the—help Iraq get over its very real problems.

MR. RUSSERT:  How do you find a leader who would be Shiite, who can maintain strength within his own community and support with the—his own Shiite community and still capable of reaching out to Sunnis and Kurds?

MR. ENGEL:  I think you need to accept that they—the blue finger day was a disaster, and you need to have new elections.  Probably a good idea to have new elections in Iraq right now while the troop surge is still in place. Then, after that happens, you would have a new leader emerge, hopefully with some enhanced powers, and then really change the rules of the game.

I was listening to this debate, pulling back 5,000 troops or 10,000 troops to send a message to Maliki.  I don’t think it’s going to have any, any impact on Maliki at all.  He would like to have more authority.  Iran wants American troops to be out of the country right now.  If the country breaks down into more chaos and more civil disobedience, then the, the Shiites will ultimately win and people like Maliki will end up on top.  I think you need to change the, the rules of the game, not just try and move around the, the chess pieces.  We need to be playing a different game.

MR. RUSSERT:  Tom Ricks and Michael Gordon, you cover the Pentagon, both in an extraordinary way.  You’ve heard all the testimony, all the reports that the military is being strained terribly by the war in Iraq.  Do you expect that there will be significant troop withdrawals recommended by the leadership in the Pentagon for 2008?

MR. RICKS:  Yes.  If things go beautifully, better than expected, you’ll see troop drawdowns beginning by April of next year.  If things go horribly, you know, much worse than they are now, you’re going to see troop drawdowns beginning in April of next year.  They’re going to come down by about one brigade, say about 5,000 troops a month, from April to October of next year. The question is, after October, how far—how much further do you go below 130,000?  And then what becomes the mission of the troops that remain?

MR. RUSSERT:  Michael:

MR. GORDON:  Well, the natural life of the surge, if you were to do nothing and just let it run its course, would be around March or April.  Because at that point the troop levels in Iraq need to—will decrease unless they extend the tours further, which they’re—have already ruled out doing, going beyond 15 months.  So force levels will begin to recede, and indeed, that’s anticipated by General Petraeus’ two-year campaign plan which he’s projected out for the summer.

But there’s really—in the latest N.I.E., people are focused on the message that there’s not political reconciliation at the national level.  But there was a second message in the N.I.E., and the N.I.E.  said that a large-scale withdrawal of American forces and a change of the mission from fighting counterinsurgency to advising the Iraqis and just going after al-Qaeda would erase the security gains that were made over the summer so far.  So that’s something that also has to be taken into account in this upcoming congressional debate.

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