‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Aug. 19, 2007

MR. DAVID GREGORY:  Our issues this Sunday:  The architect of the Bush presidency is leaving the White House.  After 14 years by Bush’s side, what political legacy does Karl Rove leave behind?  And what is the future of the Republican Party?  Our guest, the outgoing deputy chief of staff, Karl Rove.

Then, the presidential campaign in full swing:  Still testing the waters, Republican Fred Thompson makes his first visit to Iowa; Obama on the offensive against Clinton; and Giuliani wants his strained family relationship left out of the campaign.  Insights and analysis from our political roundtable—Ron Brownstein of the LA Times, Matt Cooper of Conde Nast Portfolio, John Harwood of The Wall Street Journal and CNBC, and Kate O’Beirne of the National Review.

But first, Karl Rove.

Good morning and welcome.

MR. KARL ROVE:  Morning, David.

MR. GREGORY:  You were here on this program the day after the president was inaugurated back in 2001.  You were headed to the National Cathedral for a prayer service.  Tim Russert asked you about that.

(Videotape, January 21, 2001)

MR. TIM RUSSERT:  What are you going to pray for?

MR. ROVE:  Wisdom and patience.  Humility.  That’s important, I think, for people who come here, to realize that we are here for only a time, and we have an obligation of service, and we need to keep things in perspective.

MR. RUSSERT:  We’re going to save this tape, Karl Rove.  Three good virtues.

(End videotape)

MR. GREGORY:  We did save that tape, and as you’re leaving the White House now, how do you think you measured up against those virtues?

MR. ROVE:  Not enough wisdom and, clearly, not enough patience.

MR. GREGORY:  Humility?

MR. ROVE:  I’ll let others decide on that.  I—I’m, I’m humbled because, I, I, I—I’m—I know what—I saw—I was there.  I saw the incredible strength of the man that we serve, I saw the strength of our country in some very trying and difficult times.  I saw colleagues who made huge sacrifices to serve and whose talents are, you know, put you in awe.  So I’m, I’m—I was humbled by that experience, you bet.

MR. GREGORY:  Your critics, would they think you were humble and patient?

MR. ROVE:  Oh, well, my critics think all kinds of bad things about me.  I don’t really care.

MR. GREGORY:  Let’s talk about the state of the Republican Party.  You’ve been called the architect of the second term by the president.  Many people feel you’re the...

MR. ROVE:  I don’t—I was, I was called the architect of the...

MR. GREGORY:  Of the re-election.

MR. ROVE:  ...campaign strategy for the re-election.  Let’s, let’s keep it in perspective.

MR. GREGORY:  But you had a big role in shaping the Republican Party during the Bush years.  And let’s look at the, the plight of the GOP as it now stands and put a chart up on the screen.  Back in 2000, 30 governors, now 22 governors; House members 223, now 202; senators down 55 to 49.  Also a chart about public feelings about the Republican Party:  Those who identify themselves as Republican back in 2001 at 41 percent, now 35; positive feelings, 57 in 2001, now 28; negative feelings, 22 percent back in 2001, now 49 percent.  What’s happened?

MR. ROVE:  Let’s take back—let’s step back and take an even broader frame. In 2000 this president won an election that he shouldn’t have won.  Every one of the academic prognosticators that got together at a conference in September of 2000 said Bush is going to lose the presidential election.  We’re at a time of apparent peace and prosperity.  In fact, the best number I think the president got was 46 percent out of--46-to-54 in a survey—or in a, in a forecast done by Jim Campbell of SUNY Buffalo.  Every one of them said we’re going to lose, and we won.

2002, this president led his party to victory in the off-year congressional elections.  Only the second president, the other was FDR in 1934, who was able to help his party gain seats in the House and Senate in the first off-year election.

2004 he ran for re-election.  Unpopular war, Democratic Party united.  The Republicans outspent by $124 million because of the Democratic 527s.  Not only did the president become the first candidate since 1988 to get a majority of the vote, win 81 percent of the countings in America, but he also did something that’s only been done one time before in American politics, and that is he helped his party gain seats in both the House and the Senate at the same time he won re-election.

MR. GREGORY:  Nevertheless, we...

MR. ROVE:  Let, let, let me finish.  Let me finish.  And in 2006, sure, we lost.  But if you look at history, the second midterm elections, the White House party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House—excuse me, 28 seats in the House, we lost 30, and five seats in the Senate, and we lost six.  And it was a very close election.  Eighty-five thousand votes out of 82 million cast determined control of the U.S. House of Representatives.  And control of the U.S. Senate was determined by 3,562 votes out of 60 million cast.

MR. GREGORY:  All right, but if, but if we’re comparing the state of the Republican Party today vs. when this president came into office, it’s also has to do with the issues and whether there’s a party advantage for Republicans or Democrats on the issues.  Look at this from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.  Issue after issue, advantage goes to Democrats:  global warming; health care; gas prices; reducing the deficit, a conservative principle; education, where you had made strides with No Child Left Behind; and it goes on from there, controlling government spending; Iraq, the Democrats with a 15 point advantage; Immigration; ethics in government.  Let me just continue.

MR. ROVE:  No, no.  David, David, I accept all this.  But, but here’s the fact.  You go back and take a look at the polls in the summer of 1999, and you’ll see a similar advantage for the Democrats.  At the end of the contest, let’s see how it all plays out.  Is the Republican Party a little bit behind the curve?  You bet.  Do we need to take a clear and candid look at this and realize the American people want to know...

MR. GREGORY:  Well, why is it behind the curve?

MR. ROVE:  Well...

MR. GREGORY:  What’s happened?

MR. ROVE:  Well, look.  I’ll tell you what’s behind—why.  Because we’re in an unpopular war and because we got defeated in the last elections, but—you know what the number one issue was in the last election for people who voted Democrat in ‘06 and voted Republican in ‘04?  It was corruption.  They looked at what we did in Congress, they looked at all the scandals.  They looked at Duke Cunningham, they looked at Abramoff, and they said, “We’re sick of it.” The number two issue was spending, particularly epitomized in earmarks, where they said, “Look, that’s foolish.  We don’t want you to be spending our money that way.”

MR. GREGORY:  On national security, a signature issue for this president, you said this past week the Democrats have a problem on that issue.  Back in 2002 you said this is an issue that Republicans can take to the American people because they, they trust Republicans to do a better job protecting Americans. And yet today, which party would do a better job, according to our recent polling, it’s actually a tie.

MR. ROVE:  Yeah.  I—look, first of all, we could go to polls all day long, and I—you quote polls, I’ll quote polls.  But here’s the fundamental line: At the end of the day, a contest is decided by the candidates talking about the issues and appealing to the American people on the basis of an optimistic, forward-looking agenda.  And I am very confident that we’ve got good candidates who, at the end of the day, will carry—one of them will carry the day in the primary and will stand an excellent chance of carrying the day in the general election despite the fact it’s very tough for a party to win the White House a third time.  But I’m confident we’ve got an excellent shot to do so because of the quality of our candidates and the nature of the issues.

MR. GREGORY:  You talk about the candidates.  Here is Mitt Romney, winning the straw poll in Iowa just as George W. Bush did back in 1999.  He wasn’t talking about the Bush legacy at all.  Watch.

(Videotape)

MR. MITT ROMNEY:  If there’s ever been a time that we needed to see change in Washington, it’s now.

(End of videotape)

MR. ROVE:  Good for him.  Every president...

MR. GREGORY:  He’s talking about change after the Bush years.

MR. ROVE:  No, look, look.  Every presidential election’s about change.  Do you know who said something very similar to that in 1988?  The vice president to Ronald Reagan, George.  H.  W. Bush.  Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson and all those—you know, all of our major candidates get it, that the election has got to be about the future.  Democrats want to make it about the past.  The Republicans want to make it about the future, and he was doing exactly the right thing.

MR. GREGORY:  How difficult will it be, in your judgment, for a Republican to win next year?

MR. ROVE:  It’s going to be a tough, contentious election year.  It’s going to be tough for a Democrat or a Republican to win.  One of them will win, but only after a very tough, long time.

MR. GREGORY:  But why?  You say the Republicans are now behind the curve. Will that make it harder for Republicans?

MR. ROVE:  Well, just historically.  Just historically.  Look, it was...

MR. GREGORY:  Is that simply a matter of it being, the country being at war?

MR. ROVE:  No.  No, it’s, we have a, we have a contentious war.  And it just, look, it’s just difficult.  That’s what American history’s about.  It’s really—it was—you know, Andrew Jackson ran, served two terms.  His vice president won.  But it—that’s a rare incidence in American politics.  It’s just tough.  Ronald Reagan ran twice and won.  His vice president won.  But it’s just naturally tough.  There is something about change, and if you have a candidate, like in 2000, who rested on his laurels and talked about the past rather than articulating a vision for the future, you become vulnerable.  And we seized that vulnerability in 2000 and won an election we should not have won.

MR. GREGORY:  Do you feel responsible for the fortunes of the Republican Party today?

MR. ROVE:  I—look, I’m an avid Republican.  I want my party to win.  I’ve, I’ve spent my adult life fighting for the Republican Party because I believe in its fundamental principles and I believe it represents a, a, a optimistic and a hopeful way for America.  So do I want my party to win?  You betcha.

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