Will Schwimmer ‘Dance’ away with title?

"So You Think You Can Dance' is unique among reality shows in that the talent gap among the top competitors is nearly nonexistent. Each of the four finalists has shown they have the skills to make it as professionals dancers, and the judges remind them of that every week.

Picking the most deserving contestant is tricky, since even the judges have a hard time evaluating some routines because of the choreography.

Wednesday night saw one Wade Robson number get a series of "Uh, I don't get it" responses from the bench, while hip-hop specialist and guest judge Dan Karaty spent the evening making it clear that he bowed to ballroom expert Mary Murphy on the technical aspects of most of the numbers.

That explains why the stated goal of the competition is to pick America's "favorite" dancer, rather than the best. This isn't "American Idol," where the producers are trying to sell compact discs.

What's being sold here is the "So You Think You Can Dance" brand name and dance in general, which means the judges don't have to guess at whether a contemporary dancer, a b-dance specialist, or a ballroom whiz would sell the most tickets and get the most TV airtime.

All four of the remaining finalists this season are skilled enough that it's going to be tough to argue that whoever wins is undeserving.

But somebody has to win the grand prize of $250,000, and ironically enough the same two families as last year may be the ones fighting it out for the top spot.

Last season, Benji Schwimmer won the competition, and Travis Wall came in second. This season, the favorite among the women looks to be Lacey Schwimmer, Benji's younger sister. And the best bet among the men is probably Danny Tidwell, Travis' adopted brother.

Will the Schwimmer dynasty roll on? Will the Wall-Tidwell faction gain some revenge for last year's defeat? Or will one of the other two finalists disappoint them both and emerge as the fan favorite? Odds are good that the show's producers will milk the drama for every second of Thursday's two-hour results show, but chances are that the Schwimmer clam will need to build another trophy case.

Handicapping the four finalists:

Lacey Schwimmer (30 percent chance of winning)
Lacey has spent the entire season as the favorite. Alone among the finalists, she never had to dance for her life on the results show.

She's the contestant who's always been able to inspire people to vote.

And while viewers spent much of the season voting for pairs rather than individuals, there's no doubt that Lacey carried some of her partners to safety. When the contestants switched partners after five weeks, her former teammate Kameron Bink was immediately voted off the show.

Lacey comes by her popularity honestly. She's a youth dance champion and has been consistently great in the pairs dances. Her main weakness is that she sometimes forgets her steps on her solos.

But even when she falters a bit, her personality carries her onward.

Playing to the crowd is her huge competitive advantage, in that she manages to engage the audience while maintaining the flow of the dance, rather than shamelessly mugging for the cameras (although she can do that as well). She's got the showmanship that everyone else lacks.

It also might help that the winners of the first two seasons were guys. As judge and executive producer Nigel Lythgoe pointed out in his final comments, it's probably in the best interest of the show to see a girl win this year, and Lacey's the best bet to break that barrier.

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