‘Meet the Press’ transcript for Aug. 5, 2007

MR. RUSSERT:  He also talked about the use of nuclear weapons in such an attack on Pakistan.  Let’s listen to that.

(Videotape, Thursday)

SEN. OBAMA:  I think it would be a profound mistake for us to use nuclear weapons in any circumstance if involving, you know, civilians.  Let me, let me scratch all that.  There’s no—there’s been no discussion of nuclear weapons. That’s not on the table.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  In both those comments, Hillary Clinton sought to distinguish herself from Barack Obama.  Earlier we saw her talk about him meeting with foreign leaders as naive.  When talked about the use of nuclear weapons, she said, “Presidents don’t comment about things like that,” trying to emphasize strength and experience.  And yet, the Obama camp, as you say Doris, said “Wait a minute.  We’re throwing all that out.  We’re doing something new.”

In Iowa, David Brody, are Democrats looking for something new?  And is this helpful to Barack Obama in a primary?  And has Hillary Clinton—has her mind clearly focused on a general election where strength and experience and commander in chief are much more important?

MR. BRODY:  Well, there’s no doubt about it.  And she has been very, very consistent on this from day one, talking about—look at the “rogue leaders” comment in that debate.  I mean, she capitalized on that from, from right when he said it about without pre-conditions, she pounced on that.  She has been talking about national security quite a bit.  That, clearly, is why part of the reason with his speech, if you listen to Barack Obama when he talked about this, he, he mentioned the word kill and terrorist many, many times in that speech because he knows he needs to have one eye on national security, one eye on the general election.  And he knows he cannot get trumped by her in this area or he’s got problems.

MR. RUSSERT:  Here’s some poll data, Carl Bernstein.  I’m going to go through it with you and David Mendell and everyone.  It’s quite revealing.  And then we’ll come back and talk about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama particularly.

Here’s the national race, according to Newsweek.  It has Clinton, 44; Obama, 23; Edwards, 14.  Now Iowa, the first caucus, look at this:  Obama, 27; Clinton, 26; Edwards, 26; Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, 11.

And the analysis of that Post poll is as follows:  “Overall, about half of” the “likely Iowa caucus-goers expressed a preference for what Obama is claiming to offer, which is a new direction and new ideas, while” 19 percent prioritized—“39 percent prioritized strength and experience.

“Among those who are looking for new ideas and a new direction,” Obama gets 37; Edwards, 31; Clinton, 15.  “Among those who cite strength and experience, Clinton had a wide lead with 38 percent;” Edwards was second with 21; Obama, Richardson at 14.

And one last, and this is very revealing, likely Iowa Democratic caucus voters which candidates do you think...

Best Experience:  Hillary Clinton, 50; Edwards, 15; Obama, 7.

Strongest Leader:  Hillary Clinton, 36; 18; 23.

Honest and Trustworthy:  14 for Hillary; 24 for Edwards; 30 for Obama.

Most Likeable:  14; 33; 33.

What does that tell you?

MR. BERNSTEIN:  There are pretty smart folks out there.  I, I think, you know, in terms of easy impressions, those are pretty good.

I’m so impressed by something Doris said about history and why books like—you’re talking about David’s book here—are so important.  Because what we’re seeing in all these clips are pros playing the game.  What those polls are about, that you just showed, are about are the voters trying to get past the pros?  And this election, God help us after what we’ve been through in this past administration, has got to be to get past the pros and to get to what these people are.  How do you do it?  Like Doris said, you find out about their past, and you look and say, “Do my values, do my sensibilities bring me to vote for what I know these people are, based on a real reading of their past?” I think that’s why we try to do these books.

And, and in Hillary’s case particularly, even though she’s the best-known woman in the world, we haven’t really had that opportunity because so much of her character has been defined by acolytes and enemies instead of by the best obtainable version of the truth, the kind of thing I think David has tried to do in his book about Obama.  Finally, maybe, we’re going to get that, and I think that’s what those polls are about.  I think they’re smart as hell, those polls.

MR. BRODY:  And, and I would say that goes to the character trait of authenticity, which if you think about this, I mean, this is what Mitt Romney is trying to deal with on the campaign trail, this, this flip-flop theme that is going through on—throughout his campaign.  And so it goes right to authenticity.  And voters are trying to sift through that.  I think that’s why Giuliani has done surprisingly well, not just nationally with Christian conservatives and, and other social conservatives because, whether or not you agree with him or not, he’s seen as authentic.  And I think that’s extremely important in terms of at least the perception.  Now, whether or not it will play true throughout this campaign trail, well, we’ll have to see.

MR. MENDELL:  I think that 7 percent for experience and leadership is a—has to be a real concern for the Obama people.  I think that’s why you saw him make his comments this week about an engagement in Pakistan.  They’ve got to bump that number up.  You, you can’t win that race sitting at 7 percent.  But I also think the Iowa voters are, are perhaps the most...

MR. BERNSTEIN:  They’re very self-aware, too.  You know, they know this is their big moment.

MR. RUSSERT:  Doris, to—picking up on Carl’s points, David’s points.  If we knew more about John Kennedy before he came to office, more about Richard Nixon, more about Lyndon Johnson, more about George W. Bush and the way he looked at the world or...

MR. BERNSTEIN:  (Unintelligible)

MR. RUSSERT:  ...his relationship with his father, and how he disagreed with him in terms of Iraq and going into Baghdad in ‘91 or so, how do we get our arms around that?

MS. GOODWIN:  Well, I think that’s going to be the requirement of how broadcast news should be dealing in these next months.  We’ve got to make sure that as these biographies come out, where the people have studied them, they get time just as you’re giving today.  I think the questions in the debate should be different.  It’s ridiculous to ask who has got a six-point, point program on health, and who has a seven-point program.  What matters is can they mobilize the country to support the goals that they have?  Which shows are they effective as communicators.  You’ve got to ask them about their strengths and weaknesses.  You’ve got to admit what their weaknesses are and see if they can complement them by putting the people around them who have different kinds of qualities.  I think if we can just shift the dialogue away—we’re spending too much time entertaining ourselves, and this is much too important, as we’ve seen from candidates who get in there who have all these terrible traits in the past, but we never knew about them, and suddenly—they’re not going to change.

MR. RUSSERT:  If you know those traits in the past, you—it is a pretty good predictor and indicator of the future.

MS. GOODWIN:  Absolutely.  You get on a bigger stage when you’re president, so sometimes the traits that are good can be magnified and the weaknesses can be understood if you’ve learned from experience.  But you’re not a wholly different person once you become president.  So that’s why we’ve got to look at their past.

MR. RUSSERT:  David Brody, you brought up the Republicans.  Let me get into that contest.  Here’s the latest national poll:  Giuliani is at 30, Fred Thompson—who NBC News has learned is now scheduled to announce his candidacy on September 5^th—at 22, McCain at 13 and Romney at 10.

Newsweek says this:  “The [Newsweek] survey may,” may “offer some clues as to why Giuliani hasn’t been able to widen his lead over former senator [Fred] Thompson, who hasn’t even declared his candidacy.  Roughly one third (34 percent) of all voters and more than half (58 percent) of registered Republicans say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate” who’s “a strong supporter of gay rights.  As mayor of New York City, Giuliani supported civil unions and signed a domestic-partnership bill.” He’s still the front-runner, and yet there still seems to be some reluctance because of his position on gay rights, on gun control, on abortion rights.  And yet, it’s not been the disqualifier that many had predicted.

MR. BRODY:  No, and I—and there’s three reasons for that.  I think—well, there’s quite a few reasons for that.  But taxes, the economy, the war on terror—that’s his bread and butter, that’s what he’s going to Iowa and New Hampshire, especially, for right now.  I mean, what the Giuliani campaign is basically saying here is that a lot of people have talked about a February 5^th strategy, that it’s all about Super Tuesday and these winner-take-all states. They’ll contend that it’s about Iowa and New Hampshire, and that they need to do well in those two states.  They cannot fall off the face of the map.  They need to to be a top three at least in Iowa and New Hampshire, because Romney, as you know, is leading right now in both of those states, and if he gets momentum in Iowa and New Hamsphire, he could run the table.

MR. RUSSERT:  Here’s the latest poll out this morning from Iowa.  And you’re right, Mitt Romney, 26 percent; Giuliani, 14; Fred Thompson, 13; McCain, 8; Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, 8.  What does that tell you, David?

MR. BRODY:  Well, I mean, it tells me quite a few things, that Romney spent a lot of time in the state, and that’s very important.  And that’s why Giuliani, especially, is making strides, at least his campaign believes he’s making strides in Iowa to spend a lot more time.  What they’re telling me is that expect in the fall for him to be in Iowa a lot more, in New Hampshire a lot more, and they are not conceding Iowa at all to a Romney, to a Thompson. There is a shot, the Giuliani campaign believes, for them to do very well in Iowa.  Not just top three, higher than that.

MR. RUSSERT:  If you talk to people across the country, there seems to be a trend towards the Democrats.  You ask the generic question who would you vote for for president, the Democrat wins by some 20 points.  When you match them head to head, Clinton-Giuliani, Clinton-Obama, Obama-Giuliani, it’s a much tighter race.  We went out and asked about issues.  Which party, do you think, is better, would do a better job on various issues?  And it’s quite revealing. Let’s just run through this list.

On global warming, the Democrats plus 39 points.  People overwhelmingly believe the Democrats would be better on global warming.  Health care, plus 36.  Gas prices, plus 35.  Reducing the deficit, which traditionally had been a Democratic issue, now the Democrats, a 25-point advantage.  Education, 22 points.  And controlling government spending, traditionally a Republican issue, now the Democrats, 16 points.  Iraq, 15-point bulge.  Immigration, 10. Ethics in government, 10.  The next one?  A tie.  The war on terrorism, which party?  Then, the advantage to the Republicans on these three issues: promoting a strong military, 28 points; dealing with homeland security, 12 points; promoting strong moral values, five points.

That’s a pretty good indicator on the kind of campaign we’re going to see.

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