‘Meet the Press’ transcript for July 29, 2007

MR. BALZ:  I think he’s going to run, sure.  There’s no indication that he’s not.  He’s had some problems this week.  He’s—his—the person who was putting the campaign together left the campaign, forced out.  They’ve had some other departures.  You know, I was thinking the other day, can the wheels come off a, a wagon that hasn’t come out of the, come out of the factory yet?  We’re certainly not at that point with him.  I think every indication is that he’ll get in in early September.  There’s talk that he might get in just before the New Hampshire debate early in September.

And a lot of Republicans expect that, if he does get in, that he will get a bump, that he will move in the polls, that he’ll have a good month.  And then people are going to stand back and say, “What’s he all about?” There are a lot of unanswered questions about what he would be like as a candidate.  He’s handled this period, up to now, quite well, and the question is, once he becomes a real candidate, what are people really going to think of him.

MS. MITCHELL:  I...

MR. RUSSERT:  Let’s look at that Republican race.  Here are the latest national polls for the Republicans.  Three of them on your screen.  Giuliani ahead in all of them, Thompson in second place in all of them.  John McCain in third place, Mitt Romney, 8, 8, 8 in all the national polls.  But New Hampshire, much different story.  Neighboring to Massachusetts, the former Massachusetts governor doing quite well, 34.  Giuliani in second, Thompson third, McCain in fourth.

Let’s look at Iowa.  Again, it’s Romney in front, Thompson in second, Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich.

Let’s look at South Carolina.  A little different story.  Giuliani ahead, McCain, Thompson, Gingrich and Romney way down in fifth place.

Although, the Romney campaign put out a memo saying, “We’re the front-runner and not Rudy Giuliani.” The Weekly Standard, the conservative magazine, seems to differ.  They have a cover of a magazine out this very morning, which I have right here, and I will show you on the screen, “See Rudy Run:  Why Giuliani, Despite Everything, Remains the GOP Front-Runner.” John Harwood.

MR. HARWOOD:  Look, I think when you take all factors into consideration—Iowa, New Hampshire, resources, Romney’s personal wealth, his attractiveness and the lack of sort of negatives ideologically within the Republican Party, I think he has more assets than anybody else in the race and is an undervalued stock at the moment.

Rudy Giuliani has strength on his side.  He stands for strength, post 9/11. The question is going to be how does that hold up when we really engage in the campaign and they start going after him on the social issues and as well as some of the personal dynamics—what he’s like as a person, his, his business dealings and all that sort of thing.

MR. RUSSERT:  Didn’t Romney and Giuliani have many of the same views on the social, cultural issues before this campaign?

MR. HARWOOD:  Yes.  But the difference is Romney’s gotten right on those issues and Giuliani hasn’t.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  You know, compared to Ronald Reagan in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984, George W. Bush in 2000, Hillary Clinton in 2004, there is no front-runner in the Republican race.  There isn’t—this is a wide open, much more fluid race than on the Democratic side.  But I agree with John about the assets that Romney is putting together and the risk that exists for the other candidates.  If he wins Iowa, given his proximity as a former governor of Massachusetts, he would be a very strong favorite to win New Hampshire.  And that would then put everybody in a very difficult position.  If you have the same person win Iowa and New Hampshire, even with the new changes in the calendar and Florida moving up, it gets very difficult for everyone else.

You know, the Republican race, since 1980, has followed the exact same pattern:  Two candidates split Iowa and New Hampshire, one of them wins South Carolina, and that winner is the winner.  Now, if you allow the same person to win the—both of the first two, that really, I think, is, is asking candidates to do something that really hasn’t been done:  Turn it over at that point and—overturn it.  That’s not going to be easy.

MS. MITCHELL:  (Unintelligible)

MR. ROBINSON:  What surprises me, and, and I think the Giuliani campaign should be really happy about, is his leading in South Carolina.  I mean, that’s—that is—the South Carolina Republicans are conservative, church-going, kind of, you know, bedrock Republican-based voters.  And that Giuliani, with his liberal views on, on abortion and gay rights, can do that well in South Carolina...

MS. MITCHELL:  There’s a lot of military there.  That’s, that’s, that is...

MR. ROBINSON:  Well, there’s a lot of military, right.  And you know, his central appeal has been, “I,” you know, “I will keep America strong.  I will defend America.  Never again.” And, and that, that message has some legs.

MR. RUSSERT:  But, Ron, what Rudy Giuliani is saying is, “Let the states deal with these issues.”

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  Yes.  Right.  I talked to him in South Carolina a week and a half ago, and he basically is trying to pull together all of his views on social and, for that matter, many of the regulatory issues around the common theme of federalism, that the way that we can reduce the tension in our society on issues like guns, gay rights, is to try to—avoid the effort to try to come to a single national solution that everyone will accept, because we can’t get there, and, in effect, allow the states to reach their own equilibrium.

Leads into some interesting positions.  He opposes, for now, a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, saying states should be allowed to go their own way.  But he’s also moved away from his position in the ‘90s of supporting a national ban on assault weapons.  He says states should be allowed to go their own way.  Now, obviously this serves his political interest, because it allows him to try to reconcile his generally left—moderate-to-left social views to the right of center party, but it also is an intriguing idea that, among others, Howard Dean talked about in a different way—similar way in 2004...

MS. MITCHELL:  But, but Ron, it, it, it’s a great column, and it’s a really interesting dodge, I think, on his part.  But you’ve got issues like guns, which, as a former New York City mayor, he should know better than anyone that local gun control is meaningless.  These are national issues that have to be engaged on the national level.  So he can try to say it to try to get around his obvious social issue problems with the Republican primary voter, but it really isn’t a credible position.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  Gay marriage?  Does that have to be dealt with on the national level?

MS. MITCHELL:  Well, well, certainly abortion.

MR. RUSSERT:  I want...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  That’s an—that’s an interesting question...

MR. RUSSERT:  I want to go to—I want to go to Gonzales.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  ...ultimately.

MR. RUSSERT:  Dan and Chuck, real fast, on the Republicans.

MR. BALZ:  Well, I, I talked to Giuliani about this in the spring as well, and—particularly on the issue of abortion.  He believes abortion is a, is a, is a constitutional right.  How can you say that and then say but let the—it would be better if the states decide?  He said to you, as he said to others, on education he agrees with what the president is doing, which is a much more assertive federal role in an area that has historically been a local and state issue.  I think it doesn’t add up.

MR. TODD:  Well, I’ll just say quickly, to sum up, is that I think that Giuliani’s strength in South Carolina is more—is, is interesting because Romney has a real weakness there because he’s already has been campaigning there.  Don’t forget, where Romney has spent money—Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina—and he’s in first place in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s in fifth place in South Carolina.  I think it’ll be fascinating if, if it’s Romney vs. Rudy in South Carolina.  Will the evangelicals hold their nose and vote for the Mormon or hold their nose and vote for the pro-choice guy? That’s going to be where I think this nomination’s decided.

MS. MITCHELL:  (Unintelligible)

MR. ROBINSON:  Pro-choice.

MR. TODD:  Yeah.  And that’s where they’re going to be where this thing is decided is South Carolina.  Iowa and New Hampshire may end up being semi-meaningless if, if—even if Romney sweeps them.

MR. HARWOOD:  Oh, that’s...

MR. TODD:  Semi-meaningless.

MR. HARWOOD:  If Mitt Romney comes out of Iowa and New Hampshire with wins, he’s going to be hard to stop.

MR. TODD:  South Carolina...

MR. RUSSERT:  Will part—will part of the factoring be the strategic vote? Who can beat the Democrat?

MR. TODD:  I think that they—the national poll numbers may matter.  It’s going to be just like the 2004 a little bit with the Democrats.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  One thing...

MR. TODD:  Electability may matter more with Republicans than any of us understand.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  One thing to keep in mind, the primaries are like billiards. Every shot changes every subsequent shot.  If Mitt Romney comes out of Iowa and New Hampshire certified as the conservative winner of those states, as John suggested, South Carolina may look very different than it does today. And I will guarantee you, what—whoever wins New Hampshire, South Carolina will look very different that next morning than it does today.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let’s go to Alberto Gonzales.  To give you a flavor of it, this is an exchange that he had with New York Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer about why he went to a hospital room, when he was counselor to the president, to talk to the attorney general.  Let’s watch.

(Videotape, Tuesday)

SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY):  Did the president ask you to go?

ATT’Y GEN. ALBERTO GONZALES:  We were there on behalf of the president of the United States.

SEN. SCHUMER:  I didn’t ask you that.

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