‘Meet the Press’ transcript for July 29, 2007

MR. RUSSERT:  Let’s look at these polls and, and take that into consideration.  The first, the national polls.  And here they are, there’s three of them—Hotline, Washington Post and Gallup.  Hillary Clinton with significant leads in all those polls, the same order—Clinton, Obama, Edwards.

Now look at this.  Favorable/unfavorable, Hillary Clinton:  47 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable.  Relatively hard for this state of the race to have that high unfavorable.

Obama’s favorable/unfavorable—his favorable’s 49, his unfavorable’s 26, never heard of 11.  Ideas, views towards him are still very much formulating.

Let’s look at New Hampshire, because that’s important, obviously:  Clinton, 36; Obama, 27; Richardson, 11; Edwards, 9.  Very fluid race.

Let’s look at Iowa.  Edwards, 27, as John Harwood mentioned; Clinton, 22; Obama, 16; Richardson, 11.

Now look at women.  Look at this.  Amongst men, Edwards clearly in front, 31; 17, 14, 15.  Women:  Hillary Clinton, 10-point difference between how she’s scoring with women rather than men.

MR. ROBINSON:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  What does it show us, Dan Balz?

MR. BALZ:  Well, it shows us, A, that Iowa is critically important in shaping this race.  As John said, if John Edwards were to win Iowa, this would be a different race because, up to now, most people seem to think this is a race between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama with Edwards sort of there.  Edwards is, in many ways, a one-state candidate.  He has, he has to do it in Iowa.

The other question about Iowa is, who comes in third in Iowa?  Let’s say Edwards is either first or second.  We don’t know that, I mean, he could end up third or fourth by the time we’re done with this.  But what happens to Obama or Clinton if they finish third in Iowa?  And I think there is a general sense that if Hillary Clinton wins in Iowa, she will be very, very difficult to beat.  But if she doesn’t, and if she were to finish third, we have quite a race on our hands.

MR. RUSSERT:  And what you have in Iowa is that people can show up at that caucus and change their party that day if they’re so motivated.

MR. ROBINSON:  Mm-hmm.  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  And then you go to New Hampshire, where independents can vote...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  Yes.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...in either primary.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  I’m going to disagree slightly, two, with my colleagues.

For Chuck, I think the race is more about Hillary Clinton than anybody else. It’ll be the first choice Democrats face is whether they believe she can win a general election.  I think that more than anything else is the pivot in the race.

And I disagree with both Dan and John that John Edwards winning Iowa would fundamentally change the race.  It would change the race if he can—if he’s able to follow it up in New Hampshire or thereafter, which is, is a challenge for him in particular, and for Southern candidates historically, in general, have not done well in New Hampshire.

The Clinton campaign, I think, would rather have John Edwards do well in Iowa because of the belief that he is less likely to translate that into future success.  Now, if Edwards crumbles in Iowa because of the difficulty of sustaining local support when he’s not run—polling well nationally, the risk to Hillary Clinton is that Obama could win Iowa, and with the momentum from Iowa, going into New Hampshire, a state where he already leads among independent voters, though he trails among Democrats, that, it would seem to me, is a much greater risk to her than having John Edwards win and, in effect, potentially—unless he can translate it elsewhere—taking Iowa off the table, the way a Tom Harkin did.  It—Iowa becomes much more of an all-or-nothing event for Hillary Clinton if John Edwards loses ground.

MS. MITCHELL:  Make—well, she can, she can spin Iowa.  If Edwards wins Iowa, they can play the way Bill Clinton did with Paul Tsongas winning New Hampshire.  They can play a second-place finish into a victory.  But they can’t do that as, as easily with Obama.

MR. RUSSERT:  But here...

MR. ROBINSON:  But I don’t think a third-place finish would be fatal for either Clinton or Obama in Iowa.  I think they would both—they would both develop...

MR. TODD:  I do.  I think it’s—I think it’s fatal to Obama.  I think if Obama...

MR. ROBINSON:  You think so?

MR. TODD:  First of all, don’t forget, Iowa’s a three-dimensional chess.  If one of them—if Clinton knows she could finish third, then don’t be surprised if they start figuring out a way to make sure Edwards—and I agree with Ron on that point, he’s very disagreeable this morning, but I agree with Ron on the fact that an Edwards victory in Iowa is, is the second-best result for Clinton.  You know, because this calendar sets up really well for Obama if...

MR. RUSSERT:  So you’re suggesting if there would be chicanery that the people would...

MR. TODD:  Oh, it’s not even—no.

MS. MITCHELL:  Oh, no, no, no.

MR. TODD:  Chicanery, it’s the way—now, wait a minute.  It’s the way the Iowa caucuses work.

MR. ROBINSON:  It’s politics.  It’s politics.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  Yeah.

MR. ROBINSON:  Mm-hmm.

MR. TODD:  When you don’t get viability, that’s the way, that’s the way it works.  You’re going to see crazy deals.  But the Clintons have to deny Obama victory in Iowa, because this thing—you pointed out the independents—this thing sets up well for Obama going in through the first three states.  You know, the trouble starts for him in Florida, assuming Florida is going to count, and that’s...

MS. MITCHELL:  Well, that’s—South Carolina is also a big...

MR. ROBINSON:  South Carolina is very big for him.  Yeah.

MR. BALZ:  But what’s interesting now is that New Hampshire should be a very good state for Barack Obama.  I mean, it is by far the best Obama electorate in those early states in terms of the demographics.  Hillary Clinton’s doing very well right there in—at this point in New Hampshire.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  Yes.

MR. BALZ:  Better than you would think she would do.

MR. RUSSERT:  Again, it’s women, women, women, as she is the only woman candidate in the race.  Friday night she went to a hairstylist convention. She posted this photograph—photographs on her Web site.  All the various different hairstyles, a cut above the rest.  As you can see there, she says, “Pay attention to your hair because everyone else will.” Hillary Clinton, clearly trying to identify with working women.

MS. MITCHELL:  Well, that, that hairstylist convention, they were primarily African-American, and so this is exactly her cohort.  She was mocking her own hairstyles, but she was also going one step farther.  She was taking on those who have criticized her for her appearance, including John Edwards at the debate and, importantly, The Washington Post column that I think you have some, some interest in...

MR. HARWOOD:  You know...

MS. MITCHELL:  ...the column that described her physical appearance during a Senate debate on the cost of higher education, which would...

MR. HARWOOD:  Are you suggesting Tim had more interest in it than you did?

MS. MITCHELL:  No, I’m just suggesting that, that we can get to that and show what that column had to say.

MR. RUSSERT:  You’ve opened, you’ve opened the...

MS. MITCHELL:  The door.  Well...

MR. RUSSERT:  ...chasm.

MS. MITCHELL:  ...the—good, Tim.  Well, this was the column, the fashion columnist, Pulitzer Prize-winning fashion columnist from The Washington Post who wrote about Hillary Clinton’s cleavage, and...

MR. RUSSERT:  And her showing a bit of it on the Senate floor.

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