‘Meet the Press’ transcript for July 29, 2007

And, and keep in mind, I mean, the position from which he begins when he makes a statement like that, that is not where the Democratic electorate—Obama makes the statement that he is the strongest on foreign policy, that is not where the Democratic electorate is right now.  Right now the core of Hillary Clinton’s advantage in this race is that Democrats see her as a tougher leader who is better able to handle a crisis.  Not only women but, strikingly, men. So that is something that he does have to erode.  One of this advisers said, said to me a couple of weeks ago, “Strength is a leading indicator in the presidential race,” and I believe that is absolutely right, that if he cannot erode that advantage, it’s going to be very hard for him to get past her.  So this is an effort to, perhaps, to around it and make the argument, as you were saying, that “there are a different set of values that I bring.” But we should keep in mind that the public, as is often the case, is conflicted, being pulled in two directions at once.

MR. ROBINSON:  Well, I...

MR. HARWOOD:  Tim, I think that’s exactly right, and if you look at our Journal/NBC poll among Democrats, so Barack Obama’s argument’s change; her’s is experience.  She’s a lot healthier on change than he is on experience.  He was down by more than 2-to-1 among Democratic voters on that issue.  And so I talked to a senior Republican strategist yesterday who said Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president got a little bit better this week because of the impression that the general electorate is going to get of her position.

MR. BALZ:  I was going to say, on, on our most recent poll we asked, “Are you looking for a candidate who is more likely to deliver change or a candidate who has strength and experience?” Among Democratic voters they prefer change by a margin of about 10 points over strength and experience.  What’s interesting is that, as John said, Senator Clinton is way ahead on the experience quotient.  On the change quotient, she and Obama are running almost even at this point.  So Obama has two things he has to do.  One is he has to move that bar farther in the direction of change, and he has to become the candidate of change, not in a tied race with her on that.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  Can I add a third thing that he—that fits—that—look who asks the question.  The question was asked by kind of a—seemed like a well-educated, upscale Democratic voter.  That is Barack Obama’s strength.  He is doing much better with college-educated voters than he is with non-college voters.  He’s following in the lineage of candidates like Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas and Bill Bradley, whereas Hillary Clinton, with this more hawkish answer, certainly fits into the constituency that she has, which is a non-college specially working-class audience, and we have run this race in the Democratic Party four or five times before, and the candidate in Hillary Clinton’s slot has always won.  Barack Obama, I think, has to figure out a way to reach out beyond that base.  And while this answer, I think, is very attractive to those kind of voters—and I think there is a constituency for it—it’s not clear that it solves his larger strategic problem of escaping the Starbucks ghetto.

MS. MITCHELL:  And even among women voters you see this disparity where educated women, college-educated women, women of, of, of a higher income level are less supportive of Hillary Clinton.  Her real margin over Barack Obama at 15, or 12 to 15 points is all among lower income, high school or less-educated women who see her as supporting their needs, their social needs, rather than appealing to, to intellect.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  And who are the largest block in most Democratic primaries.

MR. TODD:  But one giant difference between Barack Obama and Bill Bradley and all—everybody else that you mentioned is he’s African-American, and he could put together that, that, that winning coalition that no Democratic candidate, who has been the candidate of the elites and they’ve all failed, they’ve all come up short, but, but, boy, you know, imagine if Gary Hart on Super Tuesday back in ‘84 had had a piece of the African-American vote that Obama’s going to have.  It’s a different...

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  It makes it more formidable...

MR. TODD:  It’s a different campaign.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  It’s more formidable than any of them.

MS. MITCHELL:  Speaking of the elite, by the way, that question Tuesday night about foreign policy, Gene, that you mentioned...

MR. ROBINSON:  Mm-hmm.

MS. MITCHELL:  ...was posed by the CEO of Time Warner on Hillary Clinton’s turf.  It was a major fund-raising and gathering point in New York where Barack Obama has an advantage among Wall Street and other elites.

MR. HARWOOD:  It’ll be interesting to see how this plays at the yearly coast convention later this week when the candidates go to that group of people on the left side of the Democratic spectrum.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  I’m guessing Obama’s answer is more popular.

MR. HARWOOD:  I would guess.

MR. BROWNSTEIN:  Yeah.

MR. RUSSERT:  Margaret Carlson in Bloomberg News weighed in on this, and she had some interesting things, talking about Hillary Clinton, and this is what Margaret Carlson had to say.

“She absolutely doesn’t admire and like very much Barack.  In fact, Obama is the only candidate who gets under Clinton’s skin, and the aftermath of a mild exchange at the debate shows just how much.”

There something there, Dan?

MR. BALZ:  I think there is something there.  We’ve seen some evidence of that from time to time.  The Clinton campaign has been—obsessed is too strong a word, but, but obsessed is not far off—with Obama and the Obama campaign from the very start of this.

MR. RUSSERT:  Is it because he’s an upstart who’s in her way?

MR. BALZ:  I think that’s part of it.

MS. MITCHELL:  And a successful part.

MR. BALZ:  And, and a very bright new-age person who, who has made clear that he wants to, you know, close the book on not just the Bush era but the Clinton era as well, that, that he thinks...

MR. RUSSERT:  So turning the page is a double turn.

MR. BALZ:  ...he thinks—he thinks—he thinks this, this period that we have been through for the last 12 or 15 years has been bad in terms of what it’s done to American politics.  He wants to change that.  She’s certainly part of that, so there’s a personal element there.

MS. MITCHELL:  The only disagreement I’d have is that John Edwards also gets under her skin.

MR. ROBINSON:  Yes.  I think that’s clear.  I think that’s clear especially after he criticized her apparel at the, at the YouTube debate.

MR. RUSSERT:  Right.

MS. MITCHELL:  Yes.

MR. RUSSERT:  We’re going to get to that.

MR. ROBINSON:  We’re going to get to that.

MR. TODD:  I’ll tell you, I think what it—what really irks the Clinton campaign is that part of their appeal was supposed to be not just competent change, not just basically doing a better version of John Kerry’s 2004 campaign, but she was also supposed to be the exciting candidate.  She was supposed to be the ones getting the big crowd.  She was supposed to be the ones doing the first, being the first woman president, that this was supposed to rally people and get people excited.  And instead, he’s taken that piece away from her, where this campaign right now is a debate about him.  She’s ahead, she’s the front-runner.  She may end up the nominee and she may end up being president, but the primary campaign is all about him.  It’s all about whether—is he experienced enough?  And if you think he is, you’re probably with him.  And if you don’t think he is, you’re with her.  But it’s about Obama.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me show John Edwards weighing in, as Andrea mentioned, with his comments, and come back and talk to everyone.  Here we go, John Edwards.

(Videotape, Friday)

FORMER SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC):  If you’re looking for what’s wrong in Washington, why the system is broken, why the system doesn’t work, one perfect example’s what’s been happening just over the course of the last four days. We’ve had two good people, Democratic candidates for president, who’ve spent their time attacking each other instead of attacking the problems that this country’s faced.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  John Harwood, there’s a third way.

MR. HARWOOD:  Exactly.  First of all, Edwards took a cheap shot at Hillary Clinton’s jacket.  I liked her jacket every much as I like Andrea’s jacket today.

MS. MITCHELL:  Thanks.

MR. HARWOOD:  But secondly, look, the, the Edwards people think that Democrats don’t want to see their primary candidates attacking one another, first, and secondly, that there’s a consensus on foreign policy, broadly speaking, and they want to get to domestic issues.  John Edwards, in that same debate, drove the point that he wants to raise the minimum wage even further than Congress rose it, up to $9.50 an hour.  He has been leading some of the Democratic argument.  He did on the issue of private equity taxation.  He came out, said he was for raising taxes on hedge fund managers.  Within days Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both had echoed that position.  He’s leading in Iowa.  If he can win in Iowa in January, it’s a different race.

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