And that’s the principal difference between Contador and Levi. Contador is hungry. When the Spaniard made a go of it you could see in his face that he believed. There was conviction in his body language, and no doubt he knew he would succeed. When Levi attacks it’s clearly an experiment, to see if they’ll let him go. And that’s the difference.

With Wednesday’s course profile we can probably expect the teams to stick together up the first climb, more or less, but they’ll almost certainly regroup on the descent leading to the cat 3 Alto Laza. Expect to see the same thing happen as they charge u the cat 1 Col de la Pierre St.-Martin, with a regroup heading downhill into the feed zone at Arette 156 km into the stage. And that’s when I think we’ll see the fireworks go off in earnest.

With more than 60 km to the finish, and a relatively flat runup into the cat 1 Col de Marie-Blanque, it’s an ideal opportunity for a strong, tactically savvy team like Discovery to make a move. They have the horsepower, and Rasmussen’s Rabobank squad is seriously outgunned. If Rabobank can be isolated on the rolling terrain before the penultimate climb Contador could conceivably hit the base with a serious advantage, something Rasmussen would be unable to overcome alone. Failing that, there’s a similar opportunity on the approach to the last climb up the Col d’Aubisque, where the finish line awaits. So expect to see the hammer drop after the second feed. These boys will be strung out, spitting out also-rans behind them like confetti.

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Third-place rider Cadel Evans is within 1:37 of Contador, and while he’d love to play the spoiler his Predictor-Lotto squad lacks the depth to apply any real team pressure. And while it’s not uncommon for weaker teams to form alliances on the field of battle it’s unlikely Discovery will cooperate with a team whose captain is within striking distance of their own front-runners. The next non-Disco behind Evans, Carlos Sastre, is a CSC rider and probably won’t be inclined to cooperate with such a closely placed rival.

It’s basically up to Discovery to make something happen Wednesday. And that’s asking a lot. But this is the Blue Train, the one that put Lance on top for seven straight years. They have the experienced leadership, the tactical savvy, and the horsepower to pull it off. We’ll just have to see if they do.

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