Tech to buy Japan time to brace for quakes

As Japan deals with the seismic shock that damaged the world’s biggest nuclear plant, killed 10 people and injured more than 1,000 this week, it’s also lunging forward in earthquake preparedness — a field in which it leads the globe.

Starting in October, the country that’s in one of the most quake-prone areas in the world will transmit temblor warnings through TV, radio, cell phones and even home devices. The alerts are meant to warn residents up to 20 seconds before the shaking starts.

Doesn’t seem like much time, huh? But in mere seconds, a student could duck under a desk, a utility company could close a gas line and a doctor could delay surgery.

“That could save lives if they had a few seconds,” said Thomas Jordan, the director of the Southern California Earthquake Center. “They are useful for electrical power grids, certain infrastructure, gas lines. [But] it’s a very short warning.”

The United States, which is a few years away from deploying this type of early warning system, sees Japan as a living lab for the technology. Early warning systems are also used in Taiwan, Mexico and Turkey. But Japan boasts the largest network of seismic monitors in the world, with roughly 1,000 that can sound earthquake alerts.

“We’ve been watching the Japanese system for two to three years,” said William Leith, who is overseeing tests on the early warning systems for the U.S. Geological Survey. “It’s done substantially and improved greatly.”

Japan has been testing early warning systems for several years with selected households, rail companies and hospitals. It offered the service publicly about a year ago, mostly to companies and organizations, and will widen the release on Oct. 1. Private companies are getting in on the trend as well by selling personal early warning systems.

In the United States, people can buy take-home devices, too: They generally don’t provide advance warning, but rather can shut off a valve or the power when shaking occurs.

Leith said the United States lags behind Japan because the Asian country has made a “national commitment” to preparing for earthquakes — and with that flows funding.

“It’s a considerable investment. They have a higher risk than we have in California,” he said. “Maybe their investment is more justified.”

So is Japan actually closer to predicting earthquakes, perhaps minutes or even hours in advance? The answer lies in the science that allows these warnings: At a temblor’s onset, its epicenter simultaneously sends out several waves at various speeds and magnitudes. The faster “P” or primary wave moves vertically, spurring a slight jolt. The slower “S” or secondary wave travels horizontally but triggers the strongest tremors.

The early warning system exploits the delay by using the faster “P” wave to estimate the magnitude and timing of the worst shaking brought on by the “S” wave — all in an average of 6.6 seconds, according to Japan’s Meteorological Agency.

“The early warning system starts when the earthquake starts,” Leith said. “It doesn’t provide predictive ability.”

The glitch is, if you live on top of the epicenter, there is no lag, and thus no warning. This was the case for the region on Japan’s northern coast hardest hit by Monday's 6.8-magnitude quake. That region includes the cities of Kashiwazaki and Kariwa, as well as the nuclear reactor that was damaged.

Although the seven reactors of the nuclear plant in Kashiwazaki-Kariwa shut down automatically when the quake hit, the plant continued to leak small amounts of radioactive material two days after the quake. That sparked pointed questions about the plant's preparedness, and led the Japanese government to call for urgent earthquake-proofing checks at all of the country's 55 nuclear plants.

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