‘Meet the Press’ transcript for July 22, 2007

MR. TIM RUSSERT:  Our issues this Sunday:  What is the real terrorist threat to the United States homeland?  How good is our intelligence gathering?  And nearly six years after September 11^th, why is Osama bin Laden still at large? With us, the director of national intelligence, Admiral Mike McConnell, in his first television interview.

Then briefings, debates and votes—the Iraq war front and center.  With us, Democratic senator from Wisconsin Russ Feingold.

And in our roundtable, insights and analysis from New York Times columnist David Brooks, The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward, and The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes, author of “Cheney:  The Untold Story of America’s Most Powerful and Controversial Vice President.”

But first, this week, this document, the National Intelligence Estimate entitled “The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland,” was released.  How serious is this threat and what can we do about it?  Joining us for an exclusive interview is the director of national intelligence, Admiral Mike McConnell.

Welcome.

Admiral MIKE McCONNELL:  Thank you.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me show you an—a key judgment from this report, “We judge the U.S. homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years.” In layman’s language, for the American viewers watching today, what is the most serious threat facing our country?

Admiral McCONNELL:  Tim, the most serious threat is that the plotters that are being observed will be successful in penetrating our defenses and conducting an attack that would result in mass casualties.  Their intent is to effect an attack with mass casualties.  A secondary attempt, attempt would be political or infrastructure targets to even include economic targets that would have long-lasting impact.

MR. RUSSERT:  Is it biological and chemical?  Or the—is—do they achieve nuclear?

Admiral McCONNELL:  They have not achieved nuclear, based on our current understanding.  The intent is either chemical, biological, nuclear radiological or even nuclear to include a nuclear yield.  I, I would add what we see currently is primarily a focus on explosives, explosives that can generate a large explosion but they’re put together with commercially available material.

MR. RUSSERT:  Why haven’t we seen more suicide bombers the way we see in the Middle East?

Admiral McCONNELL:  In the United States, you mean?

MR. RUSSERT:  Mm-hmm.

Admiral McCONNELL:  The efforts that the United States and our allies have gone through over the past five years have been significant in establishing barriers so that the terrorists perceive us as a much more difficult target, very different from what it was in 9/11.  So barriers have been established, databases have been established, the National Counterterrorism Center, which conducts, three times a day, a teleconference with all the players—federal level, state level, international—to try to coordinate these things.  And if someone can be identified, they’ll be taken out of the pipeline in their process to come into the United States.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me read another key judgment.  “Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qaeda senior leadership since” September 11^th, “we judge that al-Qaeda will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.” But there are people in the United States, you are saying, who have direct ties to al-Qaeda senior leadership?

Admiral McCONNELL:  And the way I would describe it is we have strategic warning. We know what al-Qaeda, in their safe haven in Pakistan, intends to do.  We're watching them train and recruit, and their effort is to put someone inside the United States. There have been some clues in some cases where there would be a tie. But we do not have tactical warning currently that there are sleeper cells tied directly to al Qaeda inside the United States. So we have the strategic warning, not the specific tactical warning, but we know their intent.

MR. RUSSERT:  But you say there are a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qaeda senior leadership.

Admiral McCONNELL:  That’s correct, and that’s in the form of raising money or being sympathetic to.  But we haven’t identified the individuals who are actively plotting or planning.  But there have been some that have been sympathetic to al-Qaeda’s cause.

MR. RUSSERT:  Do you believe there are sleeper cells in the U.S.?

Admiral McCONNELL:  I worry that there are sleeper cells in the, in the U.S.  I do not know.  There is no specific on, on a sleeper cell.  There are some elements under surveillance because we’re not sure, so it’s warranted—court-approved, warranted surveillance.  We have some ties.  This is what I meant when I said we’ve raised the barriers and made it more difficult.

MR. RUSSERT:  This intelligence report that came out this month raised a lot of alarm and concern in the U.S., and it seems to be in stark contrast to the National Intelligence Estimate from last April, this one.  And let me read that key judgment to you:  “United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged leadership of al-Qaeda and disrupted its operations.

“We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy,” “is becoming more diffuse.” That seems so different than your assessment in July of ‘07.  What a difference a year makes.  What changed?  We were told that the al-Qaeda had been, in many ways, close to being destroyed or dismantled.

Admiral McCONNELL:  Following the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, about two-thirds of al-Qaeda’s, not only leadership, but their soldiers, the foot soldiers, had been eliminated.  And, at that point in time, that was an accurate assessment of where we were.

Now, what happened?  What’s different?  What changed?  In Pakistan, where they’re enjoying a safe haven, the government of Pakistan chose to try a political solution.  The political solution meant a peace treaty with a region that’s never been governed—not governed from the outside, not governed by Pakistan.  The opposite occurred.  Instead of pushing al-Qaeda out, the people who live in the—these federally- administered tribal areas, rather than pushing al-Qaeda out, they made a safe haven for training and recruiting.  And so, in that period of time, al-Qaeda has been able to regain some of its momentum.  The leadership’s intact, they have operational planners, and they have safe haven.  The thing they’re missing are operatives inside the United States.  So that’s the difference between last year and this year, in, in our assessment.

MR. RUSSERT:  Why haven’t we captured Osama bin Laden?

Admiral McCONNELL:  Think about attempting to capture a single human being whose primary purpose and emphasis is to remain unobserved or hidden.  It’s a very difficult challenge.  From having been in intelligence for most of my professional life, it’s not difficult to find something large—an armored division, ships that are being built, or airplanes or whatever.  But a single human being that wants to be unobserved, who’s being assisted in that process, it just makes it very, very difficult.

MR. RUSSERT:  If we captured Osama bin Laden, we might lose General Musharraf of Pakistan because of unrest such apprehension might create in his country. Would it be worth to—losing Musharraf but apprehending Osama bin Laden?

Admiral McCONNELL:  Well, first, I wouldn’t agree that if we capture or kill Osama bin Laden it would be—particularly increase a direct threat to President Musharraf.  President Musharraf is one of our strongest allies.  He agrees with capturing or killing Osama bin Laden.  And while he tried the political arrangement, the peace agreement last fall, he has made decisions over the last few weeks—you, you are aware of the Red Mosque and cleaning that out—and he’s gone on the offensive to go back into this federally-administered tribal area.  FATA is the, is the shorthand we use to refer to it.  Now, in doing that, there’s been a price.  He has lost already, I would say, 100 troops.  Broadly across Pakistan, the number’s probably approaching 300 from suicide bombs and roadside attacks.  So there is a price to pay, but President Musharraf is a moderate, he has a moderate view, and he is attempting to cause the nation of Pakistan to, to rally around a moderist view to eliminate the extremists.

MR. RUSSERT:  If his government fell, how detrimental would it be to the U.S.?

Admiral McCONNELL:  It would have a severe impact.  It would depend—if it fell, it depends on who would replace him.  It’s a democratic nation, if they continue down this current path.  So, if the process of turnover happens in a democratic way, it, it may not have severe impact.  One of the things that I would like to highlight, however, is President Musharraf is one of our most valued allies.  And, and let me just highlight this:  Probably the majority of the senior leadership that have been captured or killed are the—is the direct result of assistance and cooperation and participation of the Pakistanis.

MR. RUSSERT:  Are you convinced Osama bin Laden is alive?

Admiral McCONNELL:  We have not heard from Osama bin Laden for over a year. There was a recent video where he appeared.  Many people thought that was current.  That was actually old videotape.  So it’s been a year.  There are rumors about his illness.  My personal view is that he’s alive, but we, we don’t know because we can’t confirm it for over a year.

MR. RUSSERT:  And living in Pakistan?

Admiral McCONNELL:  I believe he is in the tribal region of Pakistan, and how he conducts his affairs, only speaking to a courier, staying completely removed from anything we could exploit to find him, I think he’s in that region.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me ask you about the executive order the president issued about enhanced interrogation measures.  What does that allow a CIA-held target—what kind of measures can they use to get information from them?

Admiral McCONNELL:  Well, Tim, as you know, I can’t discuss specific measures.  A variety of reasons for that.  One, if I, if I announce what the specific measures are, it would, it would aid those who want to resist those measures, measures to train to understand them and so on.  So I won’t be too specific. Let, let me, let me go back to a higher calling in this context.  The United States does not engage in torture.  President’s been very clear about that. This executive order spells it out.  There are means and methods to conduct interrogation that will result in information that we need.  And what I would highlight, I was, I was concerned and worried and quite frankly appalled by Abu Ghraib.  My view was America risked losing the moral high ground.  And so I focused on this when I came back.  What I can report to you is that was an aberration.  The people who were responsible for the atrocities at Abu Ghraib have been held accountable, and, and they’re serving a sentence for that. That is not the program the CIA was administering.  It is not the program that the president approved in the recent executive order.

MR. RUSSERT:  But by the use of the term “enhanced interrogation measures,” there clearly are things that are used to elicit information.  Have we eliminated waterboarding?  Can you confirm that?

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