Halfway home ... sort of

Chuck Todd Political Director • Profile

WASHINGTON - The summer lull provides a great opportunity to examine where things stand in the presidential primaries from a six-month perspective, rather than the six-minute to six-hour perspective that many of us have become so accustomed to these days.

When one looks at the progress (or lack thereof) that many of the candidates have shown over the last six months, one gets a slightly different sense of where each of the candidates are situated going into the second half of this year.

Think about where things were six months ago: the Barack Obama buzz was just starting but no one was quite sure what to make of it; there was speculation that Hillary Clinton was not ready to launch her campaign in February and was hoping for a spring start; Rudy Giuliani was still considered a “maybe”; Fred Thompson was making fundraising calls for John McCain; Mitt Romney and John Edwards were the two candidates making the most trips to the early states; and we had yet to hold one presidential debate.

Six debates, one drop out (remember Tom Vilsack?), $100 million in spending ($32 million from Romney alone), and $250 million in total fundraising later ($100 million just between Obama and Clinton), and the conventional wisdom of the race has radically shifted.

Let’s start with the most chaotic portion of the campaign: the fight for the Republican nomination.

The rise of Romney
Perhaps the only un-surprising outcome to date has been the rise of Mitt Romney. For those of us who have tracked his trajectory over the last few years, one could sense he was built for the long haul. He is a classic presidential candidate: he’s been thinking about it for years, he has the ambition, he has the Ozzie and Harriet family photo and he has the TV-ready looks. He is running a great conventional campaign and I use the term “conventional” as a compliment.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March. 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 Dec. 19, 2007 Nov. 7, 2007 Oct. 3, 2007 Sept. 12, 2007 Aug. 1, 2007 June. 13, 2007 April. 25, 2007 March. 7, 2007 Jan. 22, 2007 Dec. 13, 2006 Oct. 18, 2006 Oct. 3, 2006 Sept. 13, 2006 July 26, 2006 June 14, 2006 April 24, 2006 March 15, 2006 Jan. 30, 2006

Romney’s now the agreed upon “leader” in Iowa and New Hampshire and, frankly, in campaign organization, thanks to the current downfall of McCain. Romney controls his own destiny, which is a position every candidate wants to be in for as long as he can.

Of the next three markers in the GOP race, it’s hard to decide which of the three is more of a surprise: the resiliency of Giuliani, the downfall of McCain or the meteoric rise of Fred Thompson.

In hindsight, I’d say the Giuliani result is the most surprising. I think many of us have underestimated his strength with some rank-n-file conservatives, thanks mostly to the view some of them have that the Iraq war is a battle in the ultimate war against Islamic fundamentalism.

There are certain parts of the GOP that strongly believe this is a fight for religious freedom (see President Bush’s Fourth of July speech in West Virginia). For these folks, Giuliani is their general. These folks are willing to put aside some of their moral value issues with Giuliani if it means keeping up this global war.

Should the GOP race come down to Giuliani and Romney, the showdown between the two for South Carolina’s conservative electorate is going to be fascinating. Neither fit the state very well, thanks to Giuliani’s social positions and Romney’s Mormonism.

MORE FROM POLITICS

Politics Section Front

Obama's brief stop in Paris belies popularity McCain may act soon on VP pick Newsweek: McCain and Obama miss the real crisis   Brownstein: The risk of Obama rapture Newsweek: Factchecking McCain's Viagra moment NYT: Obama wows Europe — vaguely U.S. citizens in Europe give more to Obama Rice: Pakistan must up fight against Taliban Students offer reward for Rice arrest Newsweek: Hispanics turning to Obama Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: