Bud Collins

LONDON - Rafael Nadal will win his first Wimbledon title.

That was my prediction at the start of the London fortnight, and with another Nadal-Roger Federer men's singles final on tap, I'm sticking with my pick of the Spaniard to reign supreme on the lawns of the All-England Club.

Nadal has not had an easy time of it over the past two weeks, playing two consecutive five-set thrillers against Robin Soderling and Mikhail Youzhny in the third and fourth rounds respectively.

But in his third Wimbledon he’s become better acclimated to the grass, he’s very strong, and his serving and volleying have improved. These are the things that will serve him quite well in the final.

In the end they may not be enough to prevent Federer from winning his 54th consecutive match on grass and matching Bjorn Borg’s record of five straight Wimbledon titles, but Nadal should be considered quite capable of doing in the world No. 1 even though they are not playing on clay -- Rafa's most dominant surface.

Federer has not been tested this fortnight, but he is due for a bad day once in a while. He had one against Nadal in the French Open final a few weeks ago, losing in four sets, but somewhere along the line he’s likely to have things at Wimbledon not go his way. Federer-Nadal is a rematch of last year's Wimbledon final won by the Swiss star in four sets. Look for the outcome to be different this time around.

Let's break down the games of the players ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the world.

Serve: Federer places the serve better and has a stronger serve than Nadal does and that’s taking into account both the first and second serves. But I have noticed of late that Nadal can frequently crank his serve up to 120 mph, and he can do that enough times in a match to make an impact, which gives him an element to his game that opponents haven't seen in past years.

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Over the course of his two weeks in London Federer has increased the amount he’s served and volleyed. He used this tactic especially well in his semifinal win over Frenchman Richard Gasquet. Nadal will have to be ready for it, and it can't prove too much for the Spaniard to overcome.
Edge: Federer

Return-of-serve: Nadal’s return game could be a slight bit stronger than Federer’s which has me leaning in his direction in this category. Nadal can do a lot more with his return because of his topspin. Federer doesn't have that kind of topspin when he is hitting back. A return with topspin makes it difficult for the server. I noticed that recently Nadal has improved his slice return, and that will work well for him against Federer.
Edge: Nadal

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Forehand: The truth is that I love both the forehands of Federer and Nadal. They are very impressive shots. And they both have very different forehands. I love the way that Nadal can hit that inside-out forehand -- it’s a really strong shot and he retrieves well with his forehand. But Federer's forehand is certainly a shot that wins the world No. 1 a great deal of points so it’s hard to vote against him here.
Edge: Even

Backhand: I like Federer’s backhand quite a bit more than I like Nadal’s as the Swiss has a lot of versatility with the shot. But let’s not forget that in Paris Nadal can put Federer’s backhand under fire when he spins the ball up there. Of course, it's not likely Nadal will be able to do that quite as successfully on grass, which will undoubtedly be a relief for Federer.
Edge: Federer

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