Tracy Austin

LONDON - Good fortune would seem to be on the side of Venus Williams at Wimbledon this year.

The best evidence of such is that Venus will be taking on No. 18 Marion Bartoli of France and not top-seeded Justine Henin in the women's singles final as the American seeks to win her fourth Wimbledon title, and her second in the last three years.

Any realistic look at the final makes Venus the pick to win, and if she does prevail, she will have captured the sixth Grand Slam title of her career.

An upset for the ages
The entire tennis world is in shock after Bartoli came from a set down to upset Henin in the semifinals. I doubt anyone was anticipating the stunning upset. Bartoli took out the three-time reigning French Open champion, 1-6, 7-5, 6-1. It definitely was the biggest upset in the later rounds of Wimbledon in the Open Era.

I’m sure that before they took the court Henin felt the match against Bartoli was 99.9 percent in her pocket, and I’m sure she’s as surprised as the rest of the world that she won’t be playing in the Wimbledon final. Henin has confronted and overcome some big challenges in her brilliant career, but this was one she never saw coming.

On paper things couldn’t have looked more perfect for Henin. Her preparation was top notch in her attempt to win Wimbledon, the one major that has eluded her. She has been to the final at the London fortnight twice, including last year. The Belgian won the French Open earlier this year without losing a set. She won the Eastbourne Wimbledon warm-up tournament in a great final by beating out Wimbledon defending champion Amelie Mauresmo in a third-set tiebreaker.

Until Henin played seventh-seeded Serena Williams in the quarterfinals (a match she won in three sets), she had easy passage through the Wimbledon draw. Henin was on the top of her game. But who knew that Bartoli -- after calming her nerves after a 22-minute, first-set loss to Henin -- would play out-of-her-mind tennis. Her performance was truly shockingly good, especially in the third set, when she bolted out to a 5-0 lead.

Bartoli's previous best showing at a major was the fourth round at last month's French Open. She pronounced herself of championship caliber when she became relaxed, and began striking the ball with more confidence. The many methods she used to knock out Henin included double-fisted shots into the corners, the use of clever angles in her shotmaking, and deploying delicate drop shots that Henin could not handle.

High risk, high reward tennis
At the start of the second set in the Henin-Bartoli match I couldn’t see the Frenchwoman winning the semifinal because she couldn’t keep up with the pace of the encounter, and her game hadn't shown that extra gear to go to the level that would be required to beat the Belgian. She had chosen a path of very high risk tennis, but hadn't convinced me she could sustain that style for the entire match. But that is exactly what she did.

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It’s clear that her father, Dr. Walter Bartoli, modeled her game after Monica Seles. She plays two-handed off of both sides, she leans into her shots, and hits very flat. She stands very close to the baseline -- in fact, she stands well within the baseline to take the return-of-serve which robs an opponent of time. Venus must expect all of these things and be ready for them.

Bartoli, who earlier in the fortnight also did away with third-seeded Jelena Jankovic, snuck up on Henin, and it didn't hurt that she likely played the best tennis of her career against the Belgian. At the majors, there aren't a myriad of traps for the higher-seeded players, but Bartoli was a trap for Henin -- one the Belgian surprisingly fell into and then couldn't climb out of. What happened to Henin against Bartoli should be a warning to Venus. She must be ready for the tactics the Frenchwoman used to get to the final. If she isn't, she'll risk joining Henin at the front of the group of players most disappointed as they depart the All-England Club.

The big question is can Bartoli keep up the kind of play she displayed vs. Henin against Venus. Some hold deep reservations that she can. That's not a knock on her talent or her potential. But the analogy would be how many times does a pitcher follow a perfect game or a no-hitter by repeating the feat. That's sort of what's facing Bartoli when meeting Venus. Can she play so incredibly well for a second straight day?

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