Would deterrence work against a nuclear Iran?

Barry Posen, the director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said, “Can we deter Iran? We deterred the Soviet Union (more capable and more populous) and Mao's China (populous and at times quite difficult to understand and seemingly rather risk-accepting.)  So, why not Iran? It will not have a very strong nuclear force, it will not have a very strong conventional force; it does not have very many natural friends — since it is Persian and Shiite in a region consisting mainly of Arabs and Sunnis.”

Posen added despite the extreme rhetoric of some Iranian leaders, one should also examine “their behavior, which seems fairly cagey when it comes to calibrating risk.”

But Posen added his preferred solution is not deterrence, but for Iran to be offered “a diplomatic package of carrots and sticks, and that they see reason and choose to close down or at least seriously constrain their program.”

Giuliani rejects deterrence
Giuliani, for one, rejects the scenario of deterrence once Iran has nuclear weapons.

“It is not a good answer to say, ‘Well, we did containment with the Soviets and the Chinese.’ There are a lot of differences . . . not that the Soviets were any better then they are, but they were different and they had a big nation-state to protect,” he said.

If the Iranian regime is too risk-taking or too irrational to deter once it has nuclear weapons, then, Giuliani implied, military action to destroy its weapons program might be necessary.

MIT’s Posen says the Iran debate hasn’t yet really been engaged in earnest.

He contends that “Those advocating preventive war need to tell us why they think it will work” and what they think the Iranian reactions would be. “Once they do, preventive war can be compared to containment and deterrence and citizens and candidates can take their pick.”

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