‘Meet the Press’ transcript for July 1, 2007

MR. DAVID BRODY:  And I, and I think there’s a trust factor, too.  I mean, if you go back, Dubai ports deal, I mean, Harriet Miers, I mean, you go down the list, Social Security, I mean, the reality is there was not good will between the GOP and the president in terms of him coming to visit Capitol Hill, and his aides, as well.  And so really, this was a problem from the onset.

MR. RUSSERT:  Democrats control Congress, Chuck Todd, as you well know.  But Tavis Smiley and David Brody are right.  Look at these numbers.  How are Hispanics lining up?  Here’s the poll from USA Today/Gallup.  Fifty-eight percent said they like the Democrats, 22 percent say independents, 20 percent Republican.  Our poll, NBC, 51, 26, 21.  That’s a three-to-one gap, Democrat over Republican, for Hispanic voters.  That’s not good long term for the Republican Party.

MR. CHUCK TODD:  That’s not.  If you look at California 1994, all right? They used the Prop 187 at the time, that targeted immigrants, targeted Hispanics, and Pete Wilson won it, won his re-election, and the Republican Party paid a heavy price in California.  Now, the Bush brand was always able to sort of elevate, inflate Hispanic numbers for Republicans.  No Bushes are going to be on the ballot in 2008.  That’s probably going to flip New Mexico back to the Democrats, and then you’ve got Florida.  And if—and that’s where this thing could really, really hurt the Republicans.  Because if they lose Florida, there is no path, there is no electoral college path to win the White House.

MR. RUSSERT:  Even though the Democrats control Congress, they will not be punished for lack of accomplishment on immigration?

MR. TODD:  You know, I think that, that one of the things about congressional job approval right now is, is you have to look—the, the country views—sees things as way off the wrong track, President Bush is very unpopular, so why would they think Congress was doing a good job?  So I think right now Congress is getting hurt a little bit by the unpopularity of the president and the, the unhappiness with the country.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me turn to black Americans.  And, Tavis Smiley, this was the scene at Howard University on Thursday night when you hosted your debate with the Democratic candidates.  Senator Barack Obama was there, as well as other Democrats, and I want to talk—show what he said and come back and talk about it.  Here’s Barack Obama.

(Videotape)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D-IL, PBS/All-American Presidential Forum with Tavis Smiley):  The problems are poverty, lack of health care, these are—lack of educational opportunity—are all interconnected.  And to, to some degree, the African-American community is, is weakened.  It has a disease to its immune system.  When we are impoverished, when people don’t have jobs, they are more likely to be afflicted, not just with AIDS but with substance abuse problems, with guns in the streets, and so it is important for us to look at the whole body here and make absolutely certain that we are providing the kinds of economic development opportunities and jobs that will create healthy communities.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Now I want to contrast that style to Senator Hillary Clinton, who was also part of the debate.  Here’s Senator Clinton.

(Videotape)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY, PBS/All-American Presidential Forum with Tavis Smiley):  Let me just put this in perspective.  If HIV/AIDS were the leading cause of death of white women between the ages of 25 and 34 there would be an outraged outcry in this country.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Now, after the debate, Tavis Smiley, you gathered some viewers and voters together in a so-called focus group—there you are with Frank Luntz—asking them questions about what they observed, what they saw, what they felt.  You then reported the results Friday night on your program.  What did you find?

MR. SMILEY:  Essentially, this multiracial group that you saw, about 30 people were assembled, came in overwhelmingly prepared to support Barack Obama.  They left feeling that Hillary Clinton, as evidenced by the line you just heard her deliver so well, they left feeling that she had hands down won the debate.  That’s the bad news for Senator Obama.  The good news for Senator Obama is that most of those persons had not yet decided, based upon her winning that one critical debate, in their minds, that they were prepared to vote for her as yet.  What that raises, though, is this question, though, Tim, as to why Senator Obama is polling even as high as he is.  Most polls indicate that Hillary Clinton is out front 47-42, 45-42 inside the black community. Marginally, though, she is leading him inside of the black community.  The question, though, is how does he move beyond that and can he win the nomination without his base, African-American voters?  And the problem is that he’s holding on—how might I put this?--he’s holding on to the margin of hope in black America.  People, out of a hope for what he represents, recognizing the symbolism of this, but they’re longing for some substance, and they apparently got that from Mrs. Clinton the other night and did not get it from him, so he’s still got some work to do to pick up in the African-American community.

MR. BRODY:  Well, speaking about substance, I mean, she’s very concise and to the point, and she has some policy initiatives that she’s already gone forward with in Congress.  And so, in essence, she has as record to run on a little bit, not to mention you have the former president of the United States, the first so-called “black president,” as well, in her corner.  And you put those two together, and, and you have a pretty strong making there for Hillary Clinton.

MS. WOODRUFF:  Hillary Clinton, there’s no doubt about it, is not making mistakes.  I mean, she has this campaign—when it comes to the process of the campaign, relating to voters, these debates—she’s got it down.  But when you look at how she’s doing, and, and this is what her campaign continues to be concerned about, among moderates, moderate Republicans and among independents—and by the way there was a really good piece this morning in The Washington Post breaking out independents—Tim, she still has work to do there.  She—somebody said to me yesterday, it’s almost as if she has a ceiling.  She can get to the high 40s, mid 40s, high 40s, but there are still people who have questions about her.

MR. SMILEY:  What makes, what makes, what makes this—I’m sorry, Tim—what makes this conversation the other night, though, so critical is because I believe, and I think most folks—most person—most persons, that is, who were watching this agree that the black vote this time around is going to be the most sought after and the most thought over Democratic demographic in the 2008 elections.  And so, as goes the African-American vote on the Democratic side, certainly may go the nomination.  And I must say honestly, having nothing to doing with being in the media, just as an African-American voter, it does feel good for a change to be fought over, to know that there are two people really going after your vote, but that’s going to be a critical fight between now and next year.

MR. RUSSERT:  Particularly in South Carolina, one of the early primaries.

MR. SMILEY:  Absolutely.

MR. RUSSERT:  Chuck Todd, if Hillary Clinton is doing well in the numbers and in the polls and in the base, and yet, when it comes to money...

MR. TODD:  Money.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...the mother’s milk of politics...

MR. TODD:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...what can you tell us about Barack Obama’s ability to raise money?

MR. TODD:  Well, according to some sources I talked to last night, he’s going to report later today that he has got over 30--he’s going to have raised over $30 million in primary money.

MR. RUSSERT:  Whew.

MR. TODD:  What’s interesting...

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