‘Meet the Press’ transcript for June 17, 2007

MR. ROBINSON: Oh, I do know a bit about that state. You know, half, half the voters in the South Carolina Democratic primary are African-American. I think one thing this figure reflects is, is African-American support for Barack Obama, which one senses when one goes to South Carolina, that there’s something building there. He’s spent a lot of time there. He just gave a big speech there on Friday about fatherhood and, and paternal responsibility, a theme he comes back to quite frequently and gets a big response.

MR. RUSSERT: Amongst African-Americans in South Carolina, it’s Obama, 41; Clinton, 18. You’re exactly right.

MR. ROBINSON: Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT: Let me show you the Republicans nationally. Here is the latest. Rudy Giuliani, 29; Fred Thompson, not yet a candidate, already in second place at 20; Mitt Romney, 14; John McCain, 14. McCain has dropped 8 points, you can see there. Polls have shown Mitt Romney doing well in Iowa, doing well in New Hampshire. But again, here’s South Carolina, Carolina, out this morning, look at this. Fred Thompson, first place, 25; Rudy Giuliani, 21; Mitt Romney, 11; John McCain, 7.

Kate O’Beirne, what does that tell you?

MS. O’BEIRNE: Tells me Fred Thompson has had a really strong debut. As you point out, he debuted at second in some polls, tied for first in other polls. There’s a, there’s a lot of talent there. There’s a lot of interest in Fred Thompson, unlike other candidates. He’s—given the fact that he’s got some name recognition, and the media’s paid so much attention to him, he can make an entry this late in the race. There’s a lot of talent there, as you know. He’s smart, he’s more policy-oriented, I think, than people give him credit for. He has a sense of humor. He certainly has presence. Hollywood casting agents always spotted it. What his opponents are wondering is, does he have a second act? They’re wondering what kind of money he’s going to be able to raise, does he have a solid structure under him, and will he wind up being a plausible candidate. But they all allow his first act has been darn impressive.

MR. ROBINSON: He’s got a much better voice for South Carolina than Rudy Giuliani does, which is...

MR. YORK: But they like Giuliani down there, too.

MR. ROBINSON: They do.

MR. YORK: In South Carolina last week, I talked to the, the head of the Georgetown County Republican Party, and he did not like the McCain-Giuliani-Romney choice at all. He was very, very open to Fred Thompson. But he said openly, he said, “Look, I don’t really know all of that much about him.” And it’s not clear to me right now whether all of these Republicans, these 20 percent in this poll, are in love with Fred Thompson, or in love with the idea of Fred Thompson.

MR. RUSSERT: And that...

MR. YORK: Some outside force who comes in and saves the day, which looks pretty dark right now.

MR. DIONNE: I think that’s exactly right. The Republicans have the blues, and they really see Fred Thompson as a guy who can help them get rid of the blues. And when you look at the polling on Thompson, he’s got the perfect constituency for the Republican Party. It’s a more conservative group, which threatens Mitt Romney. He’s got a lot of support among men, a lot of support in the South, reflected in that poll in South Carolina. And the question is, can he live up to all the hopes that people in the Republican Party are investing in him. Republicans desperately want to get out of the fix they’re in, and they just know that their current field may not be the field that can do it for them.

MR. RUSSERT: I showed you that national poll, E.J. Dionne, about Hillary Clinton building up, solidifying her lead, and yet Barack Obama showing some real strength in South Carolina. Another primary, the money primary. We’ll know a lot more this week, but indications are that Barack Obama is extremely competitive, if not beating Hillary Clinton, in raising money and in the number of donors. How do you see that race evolving?

MR. DIONNE: Well, first of all, I think Hillary Clinton had a very good six months this year. In fact, it was a better six months than I expected. My own expectations, so I confess to being wrong, is that Obama would’ve been closer to her than he is right now. And I think she’s managed to use this argument about experience very effectively, and she’s used the debates to put that forward.

On the other hand, this poll suggests that the primary calendar clearly gives Obama an important opening in South Carolina. The money primary’s going to be competitive. But, as I say, I think she has proven to be as formidable as some thought she was going to be in this early stage.

MR. YORK: But the story right now really has been Hillary Clinton solidifying her lead, and Barack Obama either plateauing or slipping a little bit. You know, in this poll, they ask “Who’s more knowledgeable and experienced enough to be president?” Forty-eight percent said Hillary Clinton, 10 percent said Obama. The, the areas where he scores high are that he is inspirational and exciting. And the Clinton people believe that pretty soon you just have to show substance. So he gives great speeches, but when he goes into a debate or a town hall or something, he’s not as impressive. And that’s the reason, they think, that he’s slipping somehow.

MR. RUSSERT: But it’s been interesting. All our discussion about moving up the calendar, Tsunami Tuesday with Florida and California and New York, New Jersey, so forth, the fact is, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina still...

MS. O’BEIRNE: And Florida.

MR. RUSSERT: ...enormously important. I mean, Hillary Clinton has to win those early primaries. You can’t just hold back and say, “Wait till Tsunami Tuesday.” And Obama still very much in the game in terms of the money. If Hillary Clinton rolls out of Iowa and New Hampshire, game, set, match, right?

MR. ROBINSON: Absolutely. You know, the, the, the—Obama has, has—I’m sure his people would like him to be a little closer, as E.J. said, thought he would be a little closer now. But they don’t seem all that worried to me. They don’t, they don’t seem to be in a panic, They’ve made some mistakes, you know, kind of learning how to, how to do this at, at, at a very high level, which the Clinton people already know. Yet the Obama people seem if, if—they’re not serene, but they, but they seem to feel they’re still in a good position, that they’ll rev up a bit in the fall, and we’ll see.

MR. RUSSERT: And it’s closing in. These primary caucuses are six months away, that’s it.

MR. ROBINSON: Exactly.

MR. RUSSERT: Let me—go ahead.

MR. DIONNE: I, I have the same sense Gene does of the Obama people. Two other things here, one is John Edwards. He’s got to win two of those early contests or he’s out, and he knows that. And he’s counting a lot on South Carolina. Obama may trump him there. He’s hoping for Iowa, Hillary Clinton’s been coming up there. And then Nevada, where the unions support him. I mean, those are the places you can look for him, and they claim they’re...(unintelligible)

MR. RUSSERT: The key to New Hampshire are the independent voters. Which primary are those voters going to—going to be involved in?

MR. DIONNE: That’s exactly the right question.

MR. RUSSERT: They opted for McCain in 2000, and he won by 18 points. If they opt for the Democratic primary, and edge towards the outsider candidate, quote/unquote, the new candidate, Obama, he’s in good stead.

MR. DIONNE: And it looks like they’re leaning Democratic this year.

The other thing Democrats are worried about is you’re seeing these polls which in principle show people want to elect a Democratic president in ‘08, but none of these candidates have the same strength against Giuliani or McCain, and I think that’s going to cause a lot of discussion among Democrats to sort of step back and say, “which one of these candidates do we really want out there fighting, who can win?”

MR. RUSSERT: Who can win? Who can win? Strategic vote.

MR. DIONNE: And I—even if they say that’s not an issue, I think it’s a real issue for Democrats.

MR. RUSSERT: It seemed to be a vote in 2004, that Iowa Caucuses...

MR. DIONNE: Definitely.

MR. RUSSERT: ...when you’re out there. People’s heart was with Howard Dean, but they thought that John Kerry had a better chance in the general election, not to be.

Kate O’Beirne, there’s been a lot of discussion in the primaries about attacks on each other. And it’s been kind of mild in many of the debates. This week, Mitt Romney and John McCain really engaged in some open warfare. Here’s how it started: “McCain’s campaign e-mail to reporters was entitled ‘Mitt vs. Fact: Shifting Positions on Abortion,’” “it outlined a number of apparent inconsistencies in Romney’s views on the issue. ... Romney spokesman Kevin Madden,” called “McCain’s campaign ‘faltering,’ sent out a list of excerpts detailing what he sees as [Romney’s] commitment to opposing abortion, saying the McCain documents are full of ‘calculated distortions.’”

McCain response: “It shouldn’t surprise any Republican primary voters that Mitt Romney has changed his position on federal funding of stem cells, just like he did on immigration, abortion, taxes and guns. This illustrates he’s willing to say and do anything to win the nomination.”

Mitt Romney himself responds: “I guess politics can get a little testy if you’re having a difficult time yourself.”

MS. O’BEIRNE: Mitt Romney, during the last Republican debate, when they were trying to point out the differences on immigration, you know, was he willing to go after John McCain, “John McCain’s my friend, my beef’s not with him.” But the McCain, he McCain campaign, I think, is trying to get back to their view of this race a year ago. They, they, they thought they’d be head-on-head with Rudy Giuliani. They thought Rudy Giuliani, given his position on social issues, would be a nonstarter. Anybody else, John McCain would have the money and endorsements to sort of bury. Well, it’s not that kind of race. So I think at the moment they see Mitt Romney, owing to putting aside the national polls, he’s keeping his head down and he’s doing what he had to do in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he looks good in Michigan. So they figure if they can somehow knock Mitt Romney out of the way, they’ll get back to their Giuliani and John McCain race.

The problem here is, of course, that John McCain is backing the president on Iraq and immigration, his two most unpopular issues. He himself has gotten on the wrong side of conservatives over the years. Mitt Romney is convincing an awful lot of conservatives where it counts, in New Hampshire and Iowa, that he’s with them. Some conservatives are going to say, “Do I want a fellow who’s been with me recently, or do I want a fellow who’s been arguing with me for the past 10 years?” But it’s—I think, I think it’s all McCain has to do at the moment.

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