Will schisms matter in 2008 elections?

How immigration plays in suburban Philly
Rep. Jim Gerlach, R- Pa., who represents a suburban district west of Philadelphia, said, “We’ve gotten hundreds and hundreds of letters, e-mails, and calls, virtually all opposed to the Senate immigration bill. Maybe one or two calls in support, but 400 calls and letters and e-mails against it.”

He added, “I think this issue doesn’t stem from the actual number of illegal immigrants (in his district), but the principles behind the reform legislation. There’s just a very strong undercurrent that everybody’s got to play by the same rules of the game.”

“A lot of people back in my district say ‘why don’t you just basically provide for more manpower to enforce current law and maybe that would deal effectively with a lot of the problem,” Gerlach said.

He survived a tough re-election race last November with slightly more than 50 percent of the vote. Republicans such as Gerlach can ill afford to alienate GOP loyalists by going along with Bush on this issue. And — unlike Bush — Gerlach will be on the ballot next year.

Gerlach credits Bush with deep knowledge of the immigration issue based on his years as Texas governor. But he added, “Frankly, with all due respect, that’s not where my constituents are and it’s not just my Republican constituents. A lot of independents and Democrats don’t support the Senate bill.”

Republican pollster Whit Ayres said that he’s assuming that Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee next year and that she’ll unify Republicans. “The fear of a second Clinton administration will be greater than the discontent with Republicans over immigration,” Ayres said.

MSNBC video Sen. Hillary Clinton on her possible 'first man' Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., discusses the role her husband would have in a new Clinton administration. MSNBC

As for potential primary challengers to Republicans such as Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a supporter of Bush’s immigration efforts, Ayres said, “There’s a big difference between grousing and mounting a serious challenge to a strong incumbent.”

Hoyer vs. Pelosi on Iraq funds
The schism in Democrat ranks is illustrated by last month's vote on continued funding for the war in Iraq with no withdrawal deadline attached.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer voted “yes."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi voted "no."

In all, 86 House Democrats, nearly 40 percent of the Democratic membership, voted for the funding.

Last December, anti-war leader Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, saw this moment might come and said “the voters will not forget who let them down” if Congress chooses to keep funding the war.

He predicted that “Democrats will be held accountable in the 2008 primaries…. The war will not go away as an issue. The Democratic base will make sure of it.”

But with control of Congress up for grabs, is there too much at stake for party loyalists to punish members for their Iraq votes?

While a few House Democrats who’d supported Iraq war funding faced anti-war primary challengers last year, only one, Rep. Albert Wynn of Maryland, came close to losing his primary.

This time around a primary challenger has already emerged to try to oust freshman House Democrat Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York who voted last month to continue to fund the war.

Putting Democrats' majority at risk?
But forcing incumbents to spend money they’d need for the general election would weaken them and would put in jeopardy Pelosi’s 233-member House majority.

The Democratic-affiliated anti-war group, Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, is launching its summer campaign Thursday in 40 congressional districts, all of them Republican-held. It is not targeting Democrats such as Gillibrand who voted for the Iraq war funds.

“Our summer program is focused on Republicans because of simple math.

If we can break off five Republicans in the Senate, we can the end the war,” said Moira Mack, spokeswoman for Americans Against Escalation in Iraq.

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