Hamas siege could cement Palestinian divide

NEWS ANALYSIS

By Karin Laub

updated 1:07 p.m. ET June 13, 2007

RAMALLAH, West Bank - A Hamas military victory in Gaza could cement a political divide in the Palestinian territories — with the Islamic extremists in control of the narrow coastal territory and Western-backed Fatah ruling the larger West Bank.

It could also set the stage for a bloody confrontation with Israel, and strengthen radical states in the Middle East.

"It's a lose-lose situation for the Palestinians and Israel," said Uzi Dayan, former head of Israel's National Security Council.

The battle for Gaza isn't over. But Hamas militiamen have gained the upper hand, systematically seizing positions of Fatah-allied forces, taking control of the streets and bragging they'll keep going.

Fatah's fighters outnumber the Hamas militia, but have less firepower and lack motivation and leadership. Gaza's Fatah strongman Mohammed Dahlan is getting medical treatment abroad, and the head of Fatah, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, is increasingly perceived as timid and indecisive.

Perhaps that's because Abbas has no enticing choices.

Abbas too weak to rule?
Even if he were to order a Fatah offensive in Gaza — and there is no sign he's planning to do so — his demoralized forces may no longer be able to turn the tide. Fatah's threat to pull out of its coalition government with Hamas, formed three months ago, is largely meaningless because Abbas appears too weak to call early elections.

The most likely scenario is politically divided territories, with Hamas running Gaza and Fatah the West Bank, where Hamas is relatively weak because of continued Israeli control.

The two territories, which lie on either side of Israel, are cut off from each other by strict Israeli travel bans imposed at the start of the second Palestinian uprising in 2000. Rival governments in the West Bank and Gaza would finalize that split, and push prospects of a Palestinian state even further away.

Efforts to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, including a recent push by moderate Arab states, would be dealt a big blow because Abbas could no longer claim to represent all Palestinians and would lose his credibility as negotiating partner.

Instead, a Hamas-run Gaza would likely seal the coastal strip's pariah status and Israel could well block the borders, leading to a deeper humanitarian crisis. Already, two-thirds of Gazans live in poverty amid a punishing international aid boycott imposed after Hamas won parliamentary elections last year.

The Iran factor
Israel's options also are grim.

A Hamas victory in Gaza would put an Iranian-backed militia not just on Israel's northern border, but also its southern one. In last summer's indecisive war against Iranian-armed Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, Israel was pounded by thousands of rockets that forced hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee.

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