How low can housing go? Buyers hope a lot

“The timing has been great,” Scalice said. “With prices going down, there’s so much for sale that I had a lot to choose from.”

Still, she had to go to Fitchburg, some 40 miles from Arlington, to find a home that suited her budget and need for space. She settled on a $199,000 condominium.

Areas outside big markets may still represent the best option for finding an affordable home.

“There are areas where prices will, at worst, stay flat, but probably continue to go up,” said Patrick Lashinsky, CEO and president of Emeryville, Calif.-based ZipRealty Inc.

Home prices haven’t lost much steam in the Northwest. Seattle’s metro area, for example, saw its median price soar 12.3 percent during the first quarter.

In California, where home values more than tripled since 1995, sales have been lagging and price appreciation has slowed or fallen in major metro areas.

Prices have declined sharply in regions that saw major home or condo construction in recent years, such as Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties.

Even if prices fall further, it could be tough for buyers to find affordable financing if interest rates increase much more.

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from 1 percent to 5.25 percent between June 2004 and June 2006. The rate, which can affect mortgages, has held steady since then.

Meanwhile, the monthly average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage crept from a low of 5.23 percent in June 2003 to 6.26 percent last month, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

In addition, lenders have tightened standards in response to a surge in defaults by subprime borrowers, and a number of subprime lenders have gone out of business altogether.

A number of wannabe buyers are pinning their hopes on foreclosures, which some studies predict will explode during the next two years as adjustable mortgages reset to higher interest rates.

Foreclosure activity jumped 62 percent nationwide in April from the year-ago period, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. Among the states with the highest foreclosure rates were Nevada, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida and California.

Gino Barragan of La Puente, Calif., a lifelong renter, was among the hundreds of people who attended a recent auction looking for a good deal on a foreclosed home.

Barragan, 34, was hoping to find a condo costing less than $300,000. He found only one that he liked within his price range.

“I am willing to wait, but I’m keeping my eyes open,” said Barragan, a teacher.

Bruce Norris, president of The Norris Group, a real estate investment company, said now might be the best time to purchase a home, if the buyer plans to live there for 10 years.

“I’m not sure that I wouldn’t rather pay today’s price with today’s interest rate than count on a big discount and the wild card that interest rates might be very different,” Norris said.

“It would not shock me to have a 10 percent interest rate by the end of this negative cycle,” he said.

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