Taking New Hampshire for granite

Florida is a microcosm
Jan. 29: Florida is set for this date. There’s no large state in the union that better represents the makeup of the entire country than Florida. Think about it: the Southeast of the state mirrors the Northeast of the country; the Southwest of the state has a solid Midwestern feel; the Central part of the state is akin to the exurbs and Southwestern growth parts of the country; of course the Panhandle is the Deep South; and Key West is like San Francisco. A perfect microcosm.

Now, for what it’s worth, Florida may not be alone on the 29th. Michigan is making noises. It’s not a bad idea, frankly, if both Florida and Michigan share this date. They would be the first large state tests, one heavy with the old economy and one heavy with the new economy.  An excellent transition for the candidates to learn to campaign from the small states to the big states. And a great primer for…

Feb. 5: Tsunami Tuesday.  I’ve argued before that I think this primary date has the potential to be an afterthought. Maybe “afterthought” is too harsh, but what I think it ends up being is the exclamation point on whoever is the winner of Florida. It’s hard to imagine the candidate that wins Florida (on either side) somehow coming up short on Tsunami Tuesday.  Still, why not give the entire country a say on who the early states picked as their favorites in the month of January.

If this is the calendar, it’s making the best of a bad situation. There’s no right answer when it comes to the primary calendar, but the above is the rational compromise that any of the interested parties can hope for.

But it all depends on what Gardner does. If he’s too parochial and too stubborn, he risks making the New Hampshire primary irrelevant or simply akin to a straw poll. Moving up a week makes sense given what Florida did. Moving up more than that though could upset the delicate balance of all of this.

Gardner's deadline
Whatever Gardner decides to do, he must do it soon.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

The fact is New Hampshire only stays relevant if it gives the national media and the national candidates a chance to plan to compete and cover the event.  Spending time in various N.H. campaign headquarters indicated to me that they are trying to be prepared for whatever he decides, but if he does something overly radical, then will it be worth it to the campaigns to move resources away from other states to New Hampshire? I’m not sure.

New Hampshire does offer something unique and that’s its large portion of independent voters who can vote in either primary. It pits candidates from both parties against each other. In ’00, it pitted McCain against Bill Bradley.

This year, it appears the candidates vying the most for New Hampshire’s independents are Obama and McCain. So, here’s hoping New Hampshire stays within the January lines.

If they do, their prestige will continue.

If they don’t, New Hampshire’s relevance is in jeopardy from more than a Nevada caucus or Feb. 5 frontloading.

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

MORE FROM POLITICS

Politics Section Front

CQ: GOP presidential hopefuls — You’re on notice Obama prods China to take role on climate Poll: Americans fret over health overhaul costs   Obama’s bow in Japan sparks some criticism Newsweek: Would House health bill boost spending? Mutual financial reliance binds U.S., China NYT: Drug firms raise prices ahead of reform From Levi to Letterman: Palin's rough year Carter defends handling of Iran hostage crisis FDR papers to become public soon Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: