Taking New Hampshire for granite

Chuck Todd Political Director • Profile

WASHINGTON - It seems a week doesn’t go by without someone questioning whether the Hawkeye State of Iowa or Granite State of New Hampshire will matter this campaign season. 

This week the focus has been on Iowa thanks to the decision by two of the four GOP frontrunners to skip the Ames straw poll in August.

Despite that choice, it doesn’t look like any of the major contenders are going to skip the caucuses themselves. McCain, for instance, followed up his decision not to participate in the straw poll by adding a visit to Iowa this weekend.

And the Giuliani campaign, in defending their decision to cede the straw poll to Mitt Romney, pledged to hire more Iowa staff and pronounced themselves as in the caucuses to win.

As I’ve written previously, I believe Iowa will matter a great deal. It has the CHANCE to END the campaign.

For instance, if either Giuliani or Clinton win their respective caucuses, they will have essentially won the nomination. If Obama or Edwards can’t beat Clinton in Iowa, they will have a hard time beating her anywhere. Ditto for Mitt Romney, John McCain and Fred Thompson in their attempts to stop Giuliani. Iowa is easily the toughest state for both Clinton and Giuliani to win, so if they can make it there… 

Iowa is a must-win for anyone not named Giuliani or Clinton.

Does New Hampshire matter?
So what about New Hampshire? Will it matter?

Frankly, I have my doubts. It’s all in the hands of their Secretary of State Bill Gardner.  When he decides to hold the primary will determine the fate of New Hampshire’s significance in the process.

The joke among most insiders is they half expect Gardner to move the primary to the week after Thanksgiving, therefore guaranteeing that the state stays first. 

Frankly, if New Hampshire did announce this move and Iowa did NOT follow, then, maybe, it would become influential. Then again, the media and candidate backlash on moving a primary for a 2008 campaign to 2007 might be enough to cause major candidates to decide to skip the state.

Frankly, moving into 2007, while comically interesting, is riskier than holding their primary a few days after a Nevada caucus that many candidates aren’t going to take that seriously.

So what should Gardner do?

I think the best chance New Hampshire has to stay relevant is to move up a bit but do so in conjunction with Iowa. Move up a week to Jan. 15 and then hope Iowa moves from Jan. 14 to Jan. 7. Then the spacing of the calendar, at least in January, has some sanity to it. 

The timeline for the candidates
Each week would present the candidates with a unique test.

Jan. 7: Iowa forces the candidates to organize on a very local level, makes them a bit more in tune with their base constituencies and introduces them to a state that is as purple and divided as any in the country.

Jan. 15: New Hampshire, with its large number of registered independents exposes the candidates to an atmosphere that more closely resembles a general election electorate but in a small enough state so that everyone has a chance to meet the candidates, making money a factor but not ultimately decisive.

Jan. 19: For now, just Nevada is set to go on this Saturday. It’s a caucus, frankly, that I don’t think will matter. Who is going to show up? No one has the foggiest idea. It’s a Saturday night. This is one event on the presidential campaign trail that will essentially fall into the “what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas,” meaning no influence outside of the state.

Jan. 22: If the two South Carolina parties are smart, this is where they decide to hold their primary.  I know the South Carolina Republicans are ticked off at Florida moving to Jan. 29, but instead of making a big stink, they should hope New Hampshire moves up a week leaving this gaping hole in the calendar to be filled by the first-in-the-South small-state test. In the past, the two state parties haven’t worked together at all to make their presidential primary relevant. For some reason, Republicans like holding their primary on a Saturday (making Jan. 19 or Jan. 12 a possibility according to some state Republicans). But that’s silly. Just hold it on this Tuesday and the candidates will come. For the Democrats, it’s the first test for them with African-Americans. For the Republicans, it’s a key test with the Southern base. All-in-all, a perfect table setter for…

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