By Howard Fineman
msnbc.com
updated 3:57 p.m. ET June 5, 2007
 | Howard Fineman
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WASHINGTON - With 19 candidates (so far), and too many debates to count, even the politically obsessed are having trouble sorting things out. Who
are these people anyway? Which of them are competing for the same shelf space? To help simplify things, and of course to pay homage to the start of the NBA Finals, I offer my first tournament-bracket guide to the 2008 presidential race.
I’ve divided the conferences (Democrats and Republicans) into pairs. To advance in the tournament, candidates will have to win their respective first-round matchups — in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or, in the case of Democrats, Nevada. Winners move on to the Big Dance next Feb. 5, the mega/giga/tera national assemblage of primaries that is likely to decide the nominees.
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Alex Wong / Getty Images Paul
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Surveying the conferences, it’s remarkable how neatly the candidates fall into their first-round pairings. The lone exception is Rep. Ron Paul, the vehemently anti-war GOP candidate from Texas, of all places. A Libertarian, he is a one-man play-in game, a bracket unto himself — unless Sen. Chuck Hagel plunges in.
Since the Republicans are debating on CNN tonight in New Hampshire, I’ll start with them. Although Sen. Fred Thompson isn’t officially in the race, and therefore won’t be in Manchester, I include him in the pairings. He formed an exploratory committee — evidence of his desire. He did not renew his contract with “Law and Order” on NBC — proof that he indeed is getting in.
Republicans Bracket
- Northeast Former Flaming Libs
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Tom Strattman / AP Romney
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Mark Lennihan / AP Giuliani
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This is Red Sox-Yankees in another forum, pitting “two formers” against each other: Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. They are following opposite routes to the same goal: the forbearance, if not the outright enthusiasm, of the GOP’s religious base even tough neither man is an Evangelical Christian. Romney approaches these voters on bended knee, his social-issue positions revamped from top to bottom. Rudy, sticking to his guns, is appealing to their love of stout (even authoritarian) crusader leadership.
- Tough-Guy Senatorial Bush Backers
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Erik Jacobs /The New York Times/ / Redux Pictures McCain
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Brendan Smialowski / Getty Images Thompson
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Sen. John McCain is the ultimate peace-through-strength guy in the Senate, an all-out defender of the aims of the war in Iraq. Fred Thompson played a somewhat similar character on TV: Arthur Branch, the no-nonsense D.A. McCain these days is in a war of words with Romney over immigration, but the senator’s real natural antagonist in the political jungle is Thompson, especially since both are actively seeking the support of George Bush’s financial network. Early in their respective careers, the two men were Richard Nixon protégés. Both are former outsiders now pursuing an inside route. In the old days, they were like Jack Kerouac, barreling around in vehicles of independence: McCain’s bus, Thompson’s pickup.
- Back-to-the-Future Main Street Cultural Throwbacks
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Rogelio V. Solis / AP Brownback
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Jim Cole / AP Huckabee
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Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee brim with defiantly down-home unassuming traditionalism, and make right-to-life views central to their pitch. In both cases, the cornpone masks considerable intellectual and political savvy, just as the Grand Ole Opry hid its sales and marking sophistication behind a Minnie Pearl “Howdee!”
- Resentfully Underappreciated Former Governors
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Scott Olson / Getty Images Thompson
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Charlie Neibergall / AP Gilmore
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Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore have much in common, including a record of accomplishment as state administrators, and a long, loyal but somewhat strained history with George W. Bush, with and for whom they both worked at one time or another. Both men tend to think of themselves as practical, governing conservatives, whose prosaic accomplishments have not been sufficiently recognized.
- Fence-Loving Anti-Immigrant Western House Guys
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Jocelyn Augustino / Redux Pictures Hunter
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Charlie Neibergall / AP Tancredo
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Representatives Duncan Hunter of California and Tom Tancredo of Colorado are two peas in the Republican pod on many issues, but particularly on immigration. Hunter, of San Diego, is the man most responsible for the fence on the border near his hometown; Tancredo takes a back seat to no man in his determination to stop the flow of illegal (Latino) immigration.
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