‘Meet the Press’ transcript for June 3, 2007

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me quote Bob Shrum’s “No Excuses.” This was after John Kerry was nominated.  “A quiet round of polling helped guide the search for Kerry’s VP pick.  Hillary Clinton had high negatives and would hurt the ticket.” And then you write, Bob Shrum, “A year later after the 2004 campaign, I met Kerry for a drink.  He confessed he did not want—he did want to run again and said he just didn’t see how Hillary could win.  What states was she going to carry that he and Gore hadn’t?”

MR. SHRUM:  Well, first of all, I think that was 2005, and I think that Bush has been kind of a circuit breaker on all of this.  I think there’s a whole Democratic opportunity that Mike just referred to in 2008.  I have no doubt that Hillary Clinton can win this election.  If the election were held today, the 2004 election could be reheld today, John Kerry would win by a big margin. I just think the landscape has changed in a fundamental way.

I also think that Hillary’s real problem is not these books, it’s the fact that she performs so well in these national polls and yet performs at a much lower level in the Iowa poll, the New Hampshire poll, and I think these national polls ought to be thrown out.  I mean, I write in the book about how in, you know, three or four days before Iowa in 2004, Howard Dean was running away with the Democrats in the national polls.  Three or four days after Iowa and Kerry’s victory there, he was gone from the national polls.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mike Murphy, you weigh in on this issue with this quote. “Hillary Rodham Clinton’s deadly problem is that while she’s running in a change election, most of her identity is about the past, which is a very bad position to be in.” Explain.

MR. MURPHY:  Yes.  Presidential elections are about change and the future, particularly this one I believe.  And Hillary’s problem is that her whole story, the whole debate about her, all these books, all this noise, all everything, is debating the past.  And that’s kind of out of line with being a forward president.  And I think you start to see that now, and I agree with Bob, it’s still very open.  She has a lot of, lot of power in the primary. But in these early states where people not only know her but know other candidates because they’ve been harassing voters now or even running television already, Hillary doesn’t do that well even though everybody knows her.  I’m reminded of the old marketing joke about the new brand of cereal or dog food.  You know, it’s got the best label, the best trucks, the best recipe, endorsed by Lassie, it’s got a great song.  Crack open a can, the schnauzer takes a look at it, doesn’t buy it.  And I think Hillary may have all the assets and all the everything except the voters.  I’m short Hillary, I think it’ll be Obama or Edwards.

MR. CARVILLE:  I, I think that’s a very valid point, and I think that, that, that she is very aware of this.  I think the campaign is very aware of this. And to some extent they’re going to—and, and, and I think that she, she’s starting to do this in her appearances.  That’s why she’s doing a lot of her appearances working hard.  I think they’re very cognizant of that.  But, but, but the difficulty for Senator Clinton, who, by the way, I, I wish her nothing but well, I’m a contributor and a, and a, and a, and a voter for her, but that is going to—that’s the strategic trick of her campaign.  It’s not dealing with these book, it’s not anything—it’s not that people are going to view this.  It’s just—and I think she has—she’s got to show people that she’s really about the future.  There’s something different that she wants to bring about.  And that’s a very, very fair observation.  And I think she’s very, very aware of it.

MS. MATALIN:  And what the conservatives have to caution themselves to do is to not repeat the same mistakes of ‘92 and ‘98 and pick up these books and wave them around.  Our problem with Hillary and our debate with Hillary is that she is a liberal and that, that if we do what we did before and go back and attack her on these issues, we will not do very well.

MR. SHRUM:  Mary, Mary, would, would you be willing to go out to Iowa and keep testifying to people that she’s a liberal because it would help her in the caucuses there.

MR. MURPHY:  She’s right.  We get caught in the same problem, now we’re debating backwards, too.  But if you win the future, you’re going to win this election.

MR. RUSSERT:  You know, in answer to Bob Shrum’s conversation with John Kerry in terms of winning the states, if you look at the electoral college map in 2008, a Democrat could lose Ohio and Florida...

MR. MURPHY:  Uh-huh.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...the way they did in ‘04 and 2000.  But New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona, I think are very much in play.  And if you win three of those four states, you’re the next president of the United States, as long as you win every other state that Kerry and Gore won.

MS. MATALIN:  But this is—here’s how we think, OK, my husband rightly always says about me, “I think like I think.” We think in red and blue.  The country’s not red and blue.  The country really is purple and who makes the difference are purple people, if you will.  And there—there’s a disconnect...

MR. RUSSERT:  So Hillary Clinton could win Utah?

MS. MATALIN:  Well, OK there is...

MR. SHRUM:  There are no purple people in Utah.

MS. MATALIN:  What makes the difference are the purple people, you’re right. That, that is...

MR. RUSSERT:  All right.  Let me turn to another candidate.  Will there be another late entry?  This was former Vice President Al Gore talking to Keith Olbermann on “Countdown” the other night.

(Videotape)

FMR. VICE PRES.  AL GORE:  I’m not thinking about running.  I don’t expect to run.  Yes, I haven’t ruled out the possibility at some point in the future, but I’m not keeping that exception alive to be coy.  I really don’t expect to be a candidate again.  But here we are, 500 days or so before the next election.  I don’t see why, you know, everybody has to close the doors and say, ‘OK, let’s narrow the field and make your bets.’ I’m an American citizen. I’m going to continue speaking out on my views forcefully and as best I can.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT:  Five hundred days to go, why close the door?

MR. CARVILLE:  Why?  I, I—again, I’ve said it publicly, said if he runs for president, it’s like having sex.  You don’t do it once and forget about it. Gore’s run twice.  He’s—anybody that has ever wanted to be president still wants to be president.  Bob Dole would like to run again, all right?  Probably factors are not just lined up right for him, and I suspect if he thinks that the conditions are, are anything close to favorable for him that he would get in.  And, and, favorable for him would mean that Obama stumbles or fails to ignite or falls behind.  But I, I—and I don’t—and I admire the vice president for that.  There’s nothing wrong with somebody spending a life in politics and wanting to be president of the United States.  It’s not, it’s not—you can produce all the movies you want.  You can do anything you want. There’s nothing that is even close to being president of the United States.

MR. RUSSERT:  But James Carville, Al Gore is at a pretty good place right now.  In 2000, a heartbreaking loss, you win the popular vote, lose the electoral college.  You’re wake—you work your way out of that.  You win an Academy Award, you’re nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, best-selling movie, best-selling book.  Do you want to risk all that by running against Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primary and risk losing to her, which I think would be quite troubling....

MR. CARVILLE:  Right.  It would.

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