Is North African militant new face of al-Qaida?

Yahya began as an operative with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, one of bin Laden’s earliest supporters among national jihadi groups, but he also has strong links to the Taliban and al-Qaida in Iraq, said the official.

“He is favorably viewed by militants. Is he important beyond his role as propagandist? It’s a natural leap to being a key al-Qaida leader, a high-ranking leader, but we don’t know about any formal position ... but there is no sense he is No. 3.

“Still, he is of high interest to us and our allies.”

Adding to his bona fides is that he is one of four al-Qaida militants who escaped from a U.S. prison at Bagram Air Base in mid-2005. “He speaks frequently about it,” the official noted.  Three of the four remain at large. 

The emergence of Yahya also shows the increasing importance of North African jihadis in al-Qaida operations. 

“What this is demonstrating is that the North Africa has risen in prominence within al-Qaida,” notes Roger Cressey, former deputy director of counterterrorism in the Clinton and Bush White House. “Al-Qaida is evolving from Saudi and Egyptian leadership into one that is increasingly a broader operation, that places North Africans in positions of prominence, both operationally as well as in propaganda roles.”

The U.S. counterterrorism official agrees.  “Clearly, al-Qaida and North African extremist groups have been strengthening relationships for some time.”

Both point to the prominence of three Libyans in recent al-Qaida operations. Until he was captured in May 2005, Abu Faraj al-Libi was the organization’s director of international operations — essentially the group’s No. 3 position.  In addition, Abu Laith al-Libi is believed to be director of al-Qaida operations in Afghanistan, where he works closely with the Taliban.

As for the increasing frequency of the al-Qaida videos, Cressey says it is a good news/bad news equation.

“The good news is that they have failed to succeed in any number of their attack plans in the past few years and propaganda is the only way to maintain their visibility,” says Cressey. “But in the past, an up-tick in the tempo of messages indicated that an attack was on the way.” 

U.S. officials say that as of now, they believe the former is more likely than the latter.

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