Fred Thompson to take step toward candidacy

His disadvantages
But how does Thompson make up on lost time in building the same kind of infrastructure that McCain and Romney have built in the early primary states?

Frist and Allen staffer refugees can account for some of the staff deficit but not all.

On the issues, how is he any different than the front-runners?

A recent Washington Post story said his record was virtually identical to McCain's.

And is he attracting GOPers' attention because of who he isn't – rather than who he is?

What, in short, makes him any different than Wes Clark was in 2003-4, sans the military medals?

Should McCain worry?
The timing of Thompson's entrance is not good for any of the front-runners who are all trying to make a big financial splash this final month of the 2nd quarter.

MSNBC video Thompson in '08? May 30: According to the Politico, Fred Thompson will announce his run for the White House on the Fourth of July.  The man who wrote the story, Mike Allen of The Politico, has the details. Situation

However, the candidate who could be hurt the most is McCain, who has put the most pressure on himself to financially perform after a sub par 1st quarter.

As for Romney and Giuliani, if Thompson shows he's got the energy (and he beats back this growing media meme that he's a "lazy" campaigner, which won't be hard to do), then those two have to worry too.

Both Romney and Giuliani are trying to convince wayward conservatives and unaffiliated Bush donors to climb aboard one of their bandwagons.

Thompson's entrance allows these folks who have stayed on the sideline, to stay there longer.

It will slow down the fundraising for all three frontrunners.

In the first quarter, by our estimation, some $25 million in Bush '04 money didn't go to any GOP candidate. This is the base of money Thompson may start with.

According to two sources, of the 100+ people who were on Tuesday's conference call with Thompson, about 15-20 of them were the famed Bush "pioneers or rangers," fundraisers who raised Bush $100K-$250K in either '00 or '04.

Competing to win?
One other short-term casualty to Thompson's announcement – the significance of the Ames Straw Poll.

By getting in so late, with a little more than a month to plan for the event, I'm guessing Thompson will pass on competing to win. He may show up, and just do the minimum.

Giuliani apparently is leaning against competing to win.

What if McCain decides, you know what, Romney's just going to buy this straw poll, why give him any momentum, I'll sit out too.

And of course, the less significant the straw poll becomes, the more crushing it is to these slew of second tier candidates (Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson) who were all pointing to a strong straw poll finish as a potential slingshot.

What about Gingrich?
Finally, keep an eye on Newt Gingrich.

Fred Thompson's entrance puts Gingrich's viability in question.

Don't be surprised if Gingrich decides to step up his chatter about running in an attempt to retain some key support he had waiting in the wings in Iowa and New Hampshire. This may prove to be VERY difficult.

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