Fred Thompson to take step toward candidacy

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - Enter Number Eleven?

Fred Thompson makes it (more) official. According to a campaign source, the former Tennessee senator and actor on NBC’s “Law & Order” will file his FEC papers officially on Monday June 4.

In FEC parlance, Thompson is opening a "testing the waters" committee, a technical term that allows Thompson to forgo filing a detailed report on June 30 – though once he's an official candidate, he'll have to file retroactively.

The June 4 filing will be coordinated with a first-day fundraising blitz with 100-plus "First Day Founders" raising a significant one-day sum in order to send a we're-in-the-first-tier message.

The campaign tells me the "first day" blitz totals they report will be "cash" actually raised, not pledges. The source didn't dispute the notion that the one-day goal would be north of seven figures.

As for his "why I'm running" announcement, it is set for sometime later this summer, in July.

A campaign source wouldn't confirm the public reports of a July 4 weekend date.

This source explained that nothing about the formal declaration is in stone because they want to see how fundraising goes in June.

Assuming the campaign raises, say, $5 million or more (a goal that seems to be within reach), then more formal steps will take place.

For now, the July 4 weekend announcement plan is more of an idea being bandied about by Thompson supporters.

His advantages
If there was ever a time for GOP candidate to come out of nowhere and compete for the nomination, it's now.

According to the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, just 53% of Republicans are satisfied with their presidential choices (compared with 78% of Democrats who say they are).

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

In addition, as Business Week reported, there is plenty of uncommitted GOP Ranger/Pioneer money out there for Thompson to gobble up (many of whom were on a conference call yesterday with Thompson).

And what's not to like about a plainspoken Southerner who happens to be famous and who hasn't had ties to Washington or the Iraq war since he left Congress in 2002?

Remember, there is no top-notch southerner in the race (sorry Mike Huckabee) and the South is the geographic base of the GOP.

Other southern conservatives?
A year ago, the assumption was either Bill Frist of Tennessee or George Allen of Virginia would fill the Southern conservative vacuum.

With both Allen and Frist out, Thompson can now claim the Southern mantle.

South Carolina and Florida are looking like they will be the two most decisive primary contests for the GOP, giving Thompson a gigantic geographic advantage.

Make predictions on news events Fred Thompson will win the GOP nomination

More importantly, the current frontrunners have had a hard time unifying the three wings of the GOP: social conservatives, economic conservatives and national security conservatives.

Thompson, as of now, is seen by some as best positioned to be the guy who can keep this conservative coalition together.

Like the rest of the three frontrunners, though, there are some positions Thompson has taken in the past (including supporting McCain-Feingold campaign finance regulation and abortion) that indicate Thompson may be just as muddy on some key conservative positions as Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.

But Thompson hasn't been in the political fray since 2002 and so he hasn't retained the baggage the others have.

He didn't have to publicly support the war constantly, he didn't have to vote on immigration reform and he didn't have to vote on issues like Terri Schiavo.

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