Which party gains from immigration bill?

What analysts saw in 2004
In their analysis of the 2000 and 2004 elections, de la Garza and Cortina say, “the Hispanic electorate was far from abandoning its partisan attachment to the Democratic Party and is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future.”

Their research found a correlation among Latino voters between higher levels of education and a greater likelihood of voting Republican. But, they note, “this could be unwelcome news for Republicans” because “it suggests that as the Latino electorate grows because of new young voters and naturalized immigrants, the pool of unsophisticated voters, i.e., the less educated, will expand much more rapidly than will the ranks of the highly educated.”

So if it is not in the Republican’s interest to add more Latino voters to the electorate, why are GOP congressional leaders not fighting the new immigration bill?

One possible reason: Under the proposed plan, immigrants would need to wait at least eight years from the day the bill became law to become legal permanent residents, then wait another five years before applying for citizenship.

Thirteen years or more may be too far in the future to know how such people would vote.

GOP efforts to woo Latinos
Some GOP leaders say that Latinos will be Republicans, or at least that the party should try to woo them.

Sen. John Ensign, R- Nev., chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Monday, “I don’t think as Republicans we should be willing to give up Latino votes. I think it would be a mistake for us to give up that vote – otherwise we’re going to be the minority party for a long time.”

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Ensign argued that “Latinos should naturally be Republicans – they’re very much about family, family values, they’re hard-working people, small business owners. We need to go after that Hispanic vote very aggressively and, in the long term, we can get a lot of them into our party.”

Ensign noted that he got nearly 50 percent of Latino votes both times he ran for the Senate.

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