Watching for wisdom

Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney: The most obvious baggage that gets the most play is his religion. The "c.w." says a Mormon can't win the GOP nomination.

Right now, it seems as if he's doing a decent job of beating that back. If he loses the nod, it won't be because of that. If he loses, it will be because he's just flipped on too many issues and, combined with his perfect TV looks, will get transformed from innovative business leader to used car salesman.

Romney's challenge for the next six months isn't proving he's a Christian, it's proving he's an authentic conservative.

John McCain
John McCain: His "c.w." baggage, while bothersome for a general, is actually an asset in the GOP primary. The "c.w." says the guy who finishes second in the last battle always gets the nomination the next time.

But McCain's challenge is what was once an asset: electability.

He's no longer the most electable thanks to Giuliani’s strength in the polls. That’s becoming a bigger and bigger problem for McCain.

If conservatives are going to compromise, they’ll do so for a winner; McCain needs Giuliani to start tripping up.

The other “c.w.” baggage McCain carries is age, but, frankly, it’s something the press seems more focused on than the voters. And if it means McCain gets compared to Reagan, it’s not all that bad for the senator.

As for the Democrats, each has some well-known baggage, but each is also acquiring new baggage that they’ll need to figure out how to dump or counter.

Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton: Her well-known “c.w.” baggage is more historical – gender and being the former first lady. It’s been written to death and frankly has probably been over-written.

But the baggage that I think is real and perhaps most troubling for her is the fact that Democrats don’t like to nominate heir apparents and don’t like to nominate establishment types.
Clinton is having a hard time proving she’s the candidate for change with Democrats. It’s her biggest challenge. If she pulls it off, she’ll be the nominee.

Barack Obama
Barack Obama: His assumed “c.w.” baggage is also something that’s been written about to death –  his race and experience. But earlier this week, Obama took on new baggage and that is the idea that he might not be tough enough to run for president.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

In an interview with NBC’s David Gregory, Obama demurred at this idea he was running against Hillary Clinton. Instead, he used his “we’re all on the same team but trying out for quarterback” mantra.

But if he doesn’t begin to show signs he’s willing to run against Clinton, Democratic voters will begin to question whether he’s tough enough to take on the Republicans.

Politics ain’t beanbag, as they say, and while he regularly touts his Chicago background as proof he knows how to play hardball politics, it’s not yet enough. I think there’s no doubt he can take a punch, but can he deliver one?

John Edwards
John Edwards: His “c.w.” baggage has to do with history. That is the belief that Democrats regularly reject nominating candidates who are running for a second time.

Kennedy, Carter, Dukakis, Carter and Kerry were all first-time candidates. Gore is one of the few second-time candidates to win the Democratic nod and it wasn’t an easy road for the then-sitting VP.

Edwards has been running against his political past, whether it’s his senate record or the ’04 campaign, which is the right road for him, because again, Democratic primary voters gravitate to candidates of change, not candidates of the past or candidates with experience.

Somebody will buck their “c.w.” baggage and that somebody will become president (or at least their party’s nominee). It’s going to be interesting to see just how each tries to buck their engrained perceptions.

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

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