Watching for wisdom

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - As longtime readers of my column know, I live for two things: proving conventional wisdom wrong and spotting unintended consequences before they become, well, consequential.

It strikes me that this campaign has already proven the so-called "c.w." wrong a number of times. And will no doubt do so again.

But there's also a reason wisdom becomes "conventional" because sometimes (check that) many times, the conventional wisdom is correct.

The question in this presidential campaign is which candidate will be doomed by their "conventional wisdom" baggage and which one will buck the assumptions about their weaknesses and wind up taking the oath on Jan. 20, 2009.

Each week, it seems, one of the frontrunners on either side is faced with a test regarding their “c.w.” baggage.

This week, Rudy Giuliani finally dealt head-on with the issue that many analysts believe will doom his candidacy: abortion. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard the following: “The Republican Party will not nominate a pro-choice candidate for president.”

The statement, for years, has been treated as fact, thanks mostly to the decision by past pro-choice Republicans to, essentially, flip on the issue rather than test the theory.

Republicans convert
From Ronald Reagan to George H.W. Bush to Mitt Romney, Republicans have chosen to convert. And for a few months, it appeared even Giuliani was going to try to at least attempt some sort of redemption on the topic. By redemption, I mean, ask for forgiveness that he was and will remain reluctantly pro-choice.

But after realizing the pretzel he contorted himself into at the first Republican debate, somebody smartly got in his ear and reminded him there’s no “third way” on abortion and that abortion wasn’t going to be the make-or-break for his campaign. It was and is 9/11.

Giuliani’s performance in the 2nd debate showed why he has the support of so many conservative Republicans. Conservatives support Giuliani despite his social issue stances because, RIGHT NOW, conservatives care more about fighting a war against Islamic fundamentalism than they do about the war against their culture at home.

As long as Giuliani plays the role of “general” in this war (which by the way is a world view that is NOT shared by the Democrats), then he’ll beat back his “c.w.” baggage on abortion.

The only way Giuliani is stopped is if his strength is turned into a weakness. And that strength is leadership following 9/11. So, already, that’s one candidate who’s dumped his “c.w.” baggage.

Let's take a look at the "c.w." baggage the rest of the frontrunners are carrying...

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