Big business in seeing the future of business

“The thing that’s worse than being wrong is having the right answer, but having that answer ignored,” Saffo said.

One reason forecasting is tough is because, as forward-thinking as they like to think they are, many forecasters have no real choice but to take their cues from behaviors of the past. That can backfire if the world evolves in a way like never before, as it did with the technology boom in the 1990s.

Forecasters have gotten new advantages in recent years, as the advent of more accurate data-tracking technology has helped give people a better picture of everything from what color sweater is selling well to where political instabilities may emerge.

Still, massive amounts of data can easily become distracting. It also can be difficult to sort out what’s important, particularly when some data comes from sources that are inherently biased, like companies or trade groups with a vested interest in a positive outlook.

“You really have to know what you’re doing with it, because more data by itself doesn’t necessarily do you any good,” Baker said.

Many in the business of forecasting say one key element of doing their job is learning who to listen to, and deciding what is worth paying attention to. Vian notes that her institute may spot a trend that’s interesting and valid, but ultimately decide it will have little bearing on, say, corporate practices. Or they may see a trend that looks great for businesses on the surface, but could come around to be devastating later on.

It also can be tough to figure out what to make of even the most clear-cut findings. For example, Vian said it’s well known that demographic changes in the United States mean the population is getting older. But people also are living longer, healthier lives, and she thinks that means many base assumptions — about retirement, lifestyle and finances — could turn out to be completely wrong. If you do some fancy math looking at how long people have left to live,  you could say that, in a way, the population is getting younger.

“Rather than talking about aging, we talk about longevity,” she said.

In looking at future trends, Saffo said he keeps his eye out for anything that’s truly unusual or goes against his preconceptions. Lately, he’s been noticing big corporations and smaller governments, like the state of California and the city-state of Singapore, taking the lead where large federal governments are not, on issues such as global warming. He thinks that portents an important trend, perhaps leading to such an unusual notion as a war fought by privately employed soldiers.

Of course, it may turn out differently. After being in the forecasting business for a quarter-century, Saffo has more than made peace with that notion. In fact, he’s come to embrace it.

“The delight to this world full of surprises is we’re mostly wrong,” he said.

MORE FROM FUTURE OF BUSINESS

Future of Business Section Front

10 businesses facing extinction in 10 years Can Embraer deliver as jet backlog grows? The Web’s big players poke Facebook Penny to celebrate Lincoln’s 200th, but how? Online shopping growth to slow in next decade A look at memorable online flameouts Interactive: Retail trends of the future Future of Business Section Front   Add Future of Business headlines to your news reader: