Will Tsunami Tuesday be an afterthought?

Who skipped Iowa?
Until some candidate actually pulls off a "skip Iowa" strategy and gets the nomination, you have to assume that Iowa will still have THE impact on this race.

Al Gore tried to skip Iowa in ’88 (and the media played along in fact) and it failed.

John McCain tried to skip Iowa in ’00 (and the media played along) and it failed.

Wesley Clark skipped Iowa in ’04 (and the media sort of played along) and he flopped.

Only Bill Clinton successfully skipped Iowa and got a nomination but that’s only because EVERYONE skipped Iowa in the Democratic primary that year.

That’s why I’m a bit perplexed by the news this week out of the Giuliani camp that they are thinking about lessening their focus on the early states and instead concentrating on winning the big delegate prizes on Feb. 5 (and possibly Florida on Jan. 29).

The strategy has NEVER worked in the modern era of frontloading. Every cycle, a candidate tries it and gets close but fails.

And, sure, streaks are made to be broken and conventional wisdom is set in order to unmake it, but it is awfully risky.

The real fallacy in this purported Giuliani strategy is that somehow Republican voters in New Jersey or California or Florida are more tolerant of his moderate social views.

Ask moderate Republicans in New Jersey how hard it is to win a statewide GOP primary.

Ask moderate Republicans in California how hard it is to win a statewide GOP primary.

Arnold Schwarzenegger had to backdoor his way into the governorship; he might not have survived the normal primary process.

Then, of course, there is the issue of independent voters and their level of participation in Republican primaries.

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Right now, due to the unpopularity of President Bush, it is likely that a greater portion of independent voters (in states where independents can vote in primaries) will choose to vote for the Democratic candidates, if the current polling of independents is to be believed.

This is yet another way of proving that the GOP primary electorates (even in the big states) will be potentially just as conservative as they are in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

As it stands now, expect Iowa to have the greatest impact, winnowing each field to three candidates (at the most).

New Hampshire will be a momentum improver for the frontrunners.

South Carolina will be potentially decisive for Republicans like Giuliani and McCain and Florida on Jan. 29 will be the final test.

Now can a Giuliani come close in Iowa and then start winning everything else and roll from there? Yes, but coming close in Iowa means competing and doing better than expected.

Remember, you can "win" Iowa without winning Iowa. But you can’t skip Iowa and expect to be rewarded down the road.

So while Tsunami Tuesday is a fascinating development, and may ensure the two parties will finally concede the primary system is broken and needs reforming, it will have no more impact on the process than every other Super Tuesday going back to ’88. 

As a political junkie who likes churn, I hope I’m wrong, but recent history indicates otherwise.

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