Will Tsunami Tuesday be an afterthought?

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - Last week, California scored a mini-coup of sorts by hosting one of the first two presidential debates. Of course, California was given a MAJOR assist in scoring this first debate due to the location of the Ronald Reagan library.

Californians should bask in that "firstness" for as long as they can because it may be the last time the state is relevant in the primary process.

That’s right, despite Arnold Schwarzenegger’s attempts to make California more relevant in the primary process, it appears as of this writing (barring yet ANOTHER move by the Golden State) that California will be no more influential in picking the next president than it has been the last 20 years.

California strikes fear in every state. Twelve years ago, when then-California Gov. Pete Wilson pushed up the state's primary from June to March, there was a spate of "California will be relevant" coverage.

Well, a few months – and many enacted state primary laws – later, California, once again, found itself at the back of the pack.

And so it appears it is happening again to California.

A Tuesday in February
February 5, a.k.a. "Tsunami Tuesday," is not just going to be anchored by California’s primary. Other big states, like New York, New Jersey, Illinois and possibly Texas, are going to be on the same day.

This guarantees that California will get no more attention than it gets in any other cycle. In fact, arguably because of the cost of talking to California voters, it may get even less since there are so many other states one can concentrate on.

From my perspective, all this frontloading has done only one thing: make Iowa even more important.

Previous NBC/WSJ polls (pdf files) July 29, 2009 June 17, 2009 April 28, 2009 March 3, 2009 Jan. 14, 2009 Dec. 10, 2008 Nov. 3, 2008 Oct. 21, 2008 Oct. 6, 2008 Sept. 24, 2008 Sept. 9, 2008 Aug. 20, 2008 July 23, 2008 June 11, 2008 April 30, 2008 March 12, 2008 Jan. 24, 2008 More polls

As the very first test, the "winner(s)" of the Iowa Caucuses is (are) going to take on greater significance than ever before – particularly since there is no break between Iowa and everything else. Momentum will be the driving force for these candidates post-Iowa, not money or message.

The only chance Iowa and (to a lesser extent) New Hampshire have in becoming less relevant to the process this year is if the two states move up so early that there are a few weeks, rather than just a few days, between them and every other state.

Now I know this thinking is running counter to the evolving conventional wisdom that somehow the Feb. 5 Tsunami Tuesday primary day is going to take on greater significance.

But remember when Super Tuesday was supposed to matter in ’88 or again in ’92 or again in ’00?

The fact is, watch where these candidates travel to once Labor Day rolls around. The frontrunners will be in one of two states – Iowa or New Hampshire… period.

And frankly, the really smart candidates will be living in Iowa.

Because, in the words of that great philosopher – Ricky Bobby (of "Talladega Nights fame") – "if you’re not first, you’re last." 

That’s the way this calendar is shaping up.

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