TV viewers are vanishing, and industry worries

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There also are technical reasons that this apparent diminished interest in television may be overstated.

This year, for the first time, Nielsen is measuring viewership in the estimated 17 percent of homes with digital video recorders. Since last year’s Nielsen sample contained no DVR homes and this year’s sample does, logic dictates that fewer Nielsen families are watching TV live this year, deflating ratings.

If you recorded “Desperate Housewives” this spring and watched it more than 24 hours later, you’re not counted in the show’s ratings. Same thing if you bought a copy of a show on iTunes and watched it on your iPod or cell phone, or streamed an episode from a network Web site.

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“People are not consuming less television, they’re watching it in different ways, and the measurements haven’t caught up,” said Alan Wurtzel, chief research executive at NBC (owned by General Electric Co.).

The numbers can be significant. When “The Office” aired on NBC on April 5, Nielsen said there were 5.8 million people watching. Add in the people who recorded the episode and watched it within the next week, and viewership swelled to 7.6 million, a 32 percent increase, Nielsen said.

“The Sopranos” is another interesting case study. For its first four episodes this season, the show averaged 7.4 million viewers for its weekly Sunday night premiere, down from 8.9 million at the same point its last season.

But HBO shows each new episode eight times a week. Between the multiple plays and DVR viewing, each episode this spring gets 11.1 million viewers, down from 13 million last year. And these figures don’t count people who watch on demand.

Numbers for “The Sopranos” may be down because people can watch whenever they want. They may not be as interested in the show as they used to be — or it could be a combination of both.

Television has made billions based on how many people watch a show at its regular time. That idea may already be obsolete. So should the industry use DVR viewing when setting ad rates? If so, how quickly must people watch the shows — within two days? A week? What about people who watch shows on their cell phones or on network Web sites, which Nielsen doesn’t measure yet? Later this month Nielsen will begin measuring how many people watch commercials. Should those be used to compute advertising costs?

Right now, none of those questions have answers.

However, “if we continue to do business assuming people will watch television as they always have,” said NBC’s Wurtzel, “it’s a dead-end game.”

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