International Periscope

May 14-21, 2007 issue - Asia: Japan Forces a Hard Choice

As Japan's foreign policy has grown more assertive of late, Washington has generally tried to stick to the sidelines. But that might soon become impossible. Tokyo is petitioning hard to upgrade its air defenses by buying Lockheed Martin's F-22 Raptor, the world's most advanced and lethal aircraft (it has also flirted with the Eurofighter Typhoon as an alternative). Purchasing the fighters would alter Asia's balance of power just when the region is growing nervous about a more muscular Tokyo. And it would place the United States or Europe—which is also eager to stay in China's good graces—squarely on Japan's side.

"This could compromise U.S. relations in the region," says Bruce Klingner of the Heritage Foundation. "Washington has to be very careful about the way it manages Tokyo's evolving role." Until recently that's been fairly easy, since Japan's military capacity has remained constrained by a limited budget and Washington's policy of not sharing its best weapons. But Japan's nationalist prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is now trying to build up the power and prestige of Japan's armed forces, and the U.S. Congress has signaled it might repeal legislation that prohibits the export of the F-22. A deal would be sure to trigger outrage in China and South Korea, where memories of Tokyo's wartime atrocities still resonate. It could create the image of Japan as America's attack dog in Asia, and even spur an arms race with Beijing.

Yet it still might happen. According to many U.S. lawmakers, the United States owes its ally the tools needed to defend itself from a resurgent China. Lockheed Martin is also scheduled to phase out production of the F-22 by 2009, having filled its order for the Pentagon, and Congress would hate to shut down a program that employs workers in nearly all 50 states. "This entire thing is in play right now," says Michael Green, a former Bush aide at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But Japan is taking its security threats much more seriously, and that alone makes a deal likely." Tokyo has already purchased Boeing's E-767 AWACS surveillance aircraft and 767 tankers that allow fighter jets to keep aloft for extended periods. This might be good for U.S. workers, and for Japan. But it's sure to make Washington's Asia diplomacy even more complicated.

-Stephen Glain

Egypt: Go For Broke

In Washington, getting dumped by your lobbyist isn't a good sign. Indeed, when word got out in early May that Bannerman & Associates had dropped the Egyptian government as a client, Cairo's special relationship with America looked to be in serious jeopardy. (The firm would not return calls for comment.) Congress had just begun deliberations that could kink the pipeline that supplies Egypt with $1.5 billion in annual aid.

What gives? With the Democrats now in charge of Congress, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has come under fire for what they see as an authoritarian and recalcitrant regime. The jailing of secular opposition leader Ayman Nour, in particular, has outraged the Dems. Mubarak has also failed to persuade groups like Hamas to be more accommodating of the peace process with Israel. Last year the Democrats managed to have $200 million deducted from Egypt's annual funding—as minority lawmakers. Now they want to dramatically reduce the share of military aid that helps keep Mubarak comfortably in power. So it's up to Cairo to prove that it is still vital to U.S. interests in the Middle East, say analysts. If Mubarak isn't convincing, he stands to lose a lot more than just a longtime ally.

—S.G.

By the Numbers

Barons of private equity like the Carlyle Group are buying up companies all over the world. But in Asia, political resistance and legal obstacles are forcing them to pursue much smaller deals than they are cutting in the West. —Jonathan Adams

$141 Amount, in millions, of the average Asian deal in 2006, compared with $708 million in the U.S.

$261 Amount, in millions, of the average Asian deal so far this year, compared with $1.64 billion in the U.S.

1.8 Percentage of deals worth more than $1 billion in Asia in 2006, compared with 5.3 percent in the U.S.

3.8 Percentage of deals worth more than $1 billion in Asia so far this year, compared with 10.8 percent in the U.S.

Source: Dealogic

Trends: Clubbing for Kids

Over the last few years, little kids have gotten their own supply of indie rock, with musicians like Dan Zanes and Laurie Berkner offering groovy, folksy tunes that appeal to the whole family. Now they're getting to hang out in American nightclubs, too. Adult venues like World Café Live in Philadelphia, 12 Galaxies in San Francisco or Schubas in Chicago are opening their doors on weekend afternoons to welcome children under 8. Baby Loves Disco, now in 18 cities across America, offers diaper-changing stations, bubble machines and healthy treats for kids. (Parents can make use of a fully stocked bar, the chance to dance again and, in some locations, even pampering like massages and eyebrow shaping.) Capitalizing on Gen-X parents' appetite for all things hip, bands like the Terrible Twos, the Sippy Cups and the Dirty Sock Funtime Band are doing shows that make Mom and Dad feel less like June and Ward Cleaver and more like Gwyneth Paltrow and Chris Martin.

To accommodate the stroller set, nightclubs have to make a few adjustments—like making sure floors are cleared of last night's broken glass. Bartenders replace Grey Goose and peanuts with chocolate milk and Goldfish, and bands set their amplifiers at just the right volume. "It's gotta be loud enough that it rocks," says Ralph Covert, lead singer of Ralph's World. But not so loud it makes the audience cry.

—Julie Scelfo

The Debunker

The CW has it that 21st-century women work harder than men. Their purported longer combined working hours—at home and in the office—has provided plenty of ammunition to fire at supposedly lazy men.

New research shows that men around the world might actually be pulling their weight. Three economists—Michael Burda of Humboldt University in Berlin, Daniel Amermesh of the University of Texas and Philippe Weil of the Free University in Brussels—surveyed the work habits of men and women in the world's wealthiest 25 countries. They found that men worked a total of 7.9 hours a day, 5.2 of which were for pay. Women in those countries averaged exactly the same number of hours, but spent 1.8 more hours on domestic work. In Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands, men worked more hours than women. Meanwhile, true to stereotype, Italian and French women worked more hours than their men.

Reality Check

Garden-variety obesity may be rooted in biology rather than morality, according to a study of almost 20,000 whiteEuropean adults by a team of British researchers. They found that the FTO gene in their subjects was strongly associated with the risk for being overweight, and that the odds of becoming obese are 16 percent higher for people carrying two variants of that particular gene.

Japan: In With The Old

Japan's oldest theater traditions are evolving into new takes on contemporary themes. Noh plays—slow, serious, ritualized performances from the 15th century—are acquiring new life on Japanese stages and beyond. Auteur-director Takeshi Kawamura sets the love story "Aoi"—currently touring the United States—in a high-class hair salon. In "Komachi," an old film diva, played by a male Butoh dancer, courts a down-and-out movie director in order to make a return to the silver screen. As he dances like a whirling dervish, the colorful spectacle of his billowing red dress—a homage to Noh's trademark of brilliant costumes—leaves audiences breathless. "There's a sense of strangeness and wonder in many Noh plays," Kawamura says. -Vibhuti Patel