Why one-day gasoline 'boycott' won't work

The problem with this part of the boycotters’ plan is that, just like drivers topping off their gas tanks before and after May 15, refiners work off stockpiles. So if all U.S. refiners bought $624 million less crude oil on Tuesday, they could just buy a little more on Wednesday to bring their stocks back up. Even if they somehow canceled delivery of oil they’d already contracted to buy, any oil not delivered to U.S. refiners would be sold to other customers.

True, if you suddenly took 10 million barrels of oil off the market for a day, you might knock the spot market price of crude down a notch. But much of the oil sold every day is priced under long-term contracts. So if your 10 million barrels went undelivered for 24 hours, you wouldn’t change the price that a refiner had already paid for it. Even if, for some reason, that 10 million barrels went unsold, it would still be sitting in the ground with an oil producer's name on it, ready to be sold later — possibly at a higher, and more profitable, price. 

Taxes
About 19 percent of the pump price of each gallon represents taxes. So the next big chunk of cash from a day’s worth of unsold gasoline — about $228 million — would come out of the budgets of federal, state and local governments, not oil industry profits. Since that money is used to pay for programs and purchases that have already been approved, you’d have to make up the difference by raising other taxes, or cutting spending, or some combination. 

Refining
Now comes the part that makes most would-be boycotters see red: the refiners' cut. Another 19 percent of our $1.2 billion in daily gasoline purchases pays for the cost of making the gasoline, including the refiners’ profits. That money also goes to pay refinery workers’ salaries, new equipment, maintenance and all the other costs of running a business.

So just how much goes to “line oil refiners’ pockets?” According to researchers at the investment firm Friedman, Billings and Ramsey, the average profit margin for converting a barrel of crude oil into gasoline in the first quarter of this year came to $15.75 — or about 37.5 cents per gallon. (In the oil patch, there are 42 gallons in a barrel.)

With gas prices at $3 a gallon, that's about 12.5 percent margin, or about $150 million a day — not a bad profit for a day's work.

But how does that compare to what other companies make? Google and Bank of America recently reported net profit margins of 29 percent; handbag maker Coach Inc. had a net margin of 24 percent and Coca-Cola reported a net margin of 21 percent. Of the 200 largest companies in the S&P 500 index, 82 had profit margins higher than 12.5 percent, according to figures from MSN Money.

Wholesalers and retailers
Though retailers bear the brunt of pump price rage, they actually get the smallest piece of your gasoline dollar. About 9 percent of the retail pump price pays for distribution and marketing, which includes the cost of shipping gasoline to wholesalers, who take a cut and then ship it to your local gas station.

Very little of the retailers' cut goes back to oil companies. Something like 80 percent of the gasoline consumed in the United States is sold by 112,000 convenience stores, according to the National Association of Convenience Stores. Even though they may display an oil company logo, less than 3 percent of U.S. gas stations are owned by a major oil company. After factoring in all expenses, including credit card fees, the average retail profit per gallon is roughly 1 cent, according to the NACS. Some stores lose money on gasoline to boost foot traffic to the store and increase sales of soda and chips.

An alternative fuel boycott
Still, if it will make you feel better, go ahead and drive by the gas pumps May 15. But don’t kid yourself into believing that it will do anything to “stick it to Big Oil.”

Why not, instead, make May 15 “Fuel Economy Awareness Day” — urging drivers to check the mileage they’re getting and review suggestions for improving it? Better yet, make May 15 “Shop For A Higher Mileage Car Day.”

Because the only way we’re going to have any impact on demand — and price — is to reduce the amount of gasoline consumed per person. And the best way to do that is to improve the efficiency of cars on U.S. roads. If you doubled your average mileage, you would cut consumption in half.

Now that would put a big crimp in gasoline sales and almost certainly send pump prices tumbling.

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