Experts contradict Pentagon on anti-RPG tests

IDA employed so-called Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) to measure the maturity of technologies. Originally developed by NASA, TRLs have been adapted and codified in Defense Department regulations. In short, TRLs rank technologies on a scale of 1-9:

• 1. Basic principles observed and reported
• 2. Technology concept and/or application formulated
• 3. Proof of concept has been demonstrated, but not necessarily with the hardware intended for fielding.
• 4. Components have been validated in a laboratory environment
• 5. Component have been validated in a relevant environment
• 6. A system or subsystem model has been demonstrated in a relevant environment
• 7. System prototype demonstration in an operational environment
• 8. Actual system completed and qualified through test and demonstration
• 9. Actual system proven through successful mission operations.

Trophy was found to be “in an advanced state of development” with a TRL of 7-8. Meanwhile Raytheon’s Quick Kill was judged a 3 for threshold capabilities (RPGs, ATGMs).

While Maj. Gen. Sorenson told Congress that Raytheon’s system would be ready at about the same time as Trophy, the IDA report estimates it will take Raytheon some five years to catch up to Trophy. Quick Kill, according to the report, won’t achieve a TRL of 8 until “2012 at the earliest.”

Said one top congressional source, “It’s hard to imagine what Sorenson plans to hang on a vehicle next year [2008].”

As to the Army’s claim that Quick Kill can more easily be integrated onto a Stryker than Trophy, IDA concluded that “integration has not yet been demonstrated and may not be feasible because of space and power issues.” What’s more, Quick Kill, as currently designed, will not be able to defend against top-attack threats.

Thus, the new report found, Raytheon's Quick Kill does not appear to meet the space, power and top-attack criteria which the Army says it used to select Quick Kill over Trophy.

According to Phil Coyle: “From the Army's point of view, the most damaging thing is that senior military officers testified before Congress to facts that are at variance with this report.”

IDA’s experts concluded that while development of Quick Kill ought to continue, an “independent” technology readiness assessment should be done. IDA also suggested the Army “develop a fall-back plan with clear decision criteria in case Quick Kill fails to achieve desired technology or performance levels in time.”

As for Trophy, IDA recommended that U.S. evaluations of Trophy and integration onto a Stryker vehicle be continued and that officials “monitor all continuing Trophy developments to maintain an option for possible future adoption on U.S. vehicles.” In the meantime, IDA suggested that Trophy could be used by the Army and Marine Corps to develop technical, operational, and live-fire standards and procedures and rules of engagement.

In a statement to NBC News, the Army insists that it is “an open and transparent institution that continually learns and adapts from new perspectives; we of course welcome fresh and independent analyses.” It goes on to say that the Army still believes its Active Protection System (Raytheon’s Quick Kill) “will best protect Soldiers against current and rapidly emerging threats.”

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