What kind of battle for Democrats in 2008?

Tom Curry National affairs writer • Profile • E-mail

WASHINGTON - Will the 2008 Democratic presidential contest resemble the one eight years ago when Al Gore and Bill Bradley had to magnify relatively minor differences between them in order to generate some heat?

Or will it look like the spectacular contest in 1968, a grand referendum on the future of the Democratic Party?

Thursday night’s debate among eight Democratic contenders will provide clues on the nature of the contest; in a crowded field, it will be hard to get viewers to remember the pungent phrase or stinging challenge by one rival to another.

In 1968, at a time of war like today, the anti-Vietnam War candidates, Eugene McCarthy, Robert Kennedy and George McGovern, backed by a generation of young activists, challenged first President Lyndon Johnson, forcing him out of the race, and then Vice President Hubert Humphrey.

It was a dramatic clash of old vs. new. Old won, as Humphrey got the nomination.

Referendum on Clintons
Due to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s prominence and her husband’s claims on the affections of Democrats, inevitably the 2008 contest will be something of a referendum on Bill and Hillary Clinton.

There have been famously political first ladies in the past, such as Eleanor Roosevelt. But history offers no precedents for how voters react to the wife of a former president running for his old job. Bill Clinton is a more naturally gifted campaigner than his wife, so it will be interesting to see how much the Clinton campaign uses his talents.

"He has been extremely popular with Democrats and even has some appeal to moderate Republicans. He has an inherently likeable personality, but popularity is not transferable," said Republican consultant Scott Howell. "You either like her, or you don't like her."

Campaigns are about issues as well as personalities. And this year, on many issues the Democratic contenders do largely agree: for instance, all four Democratic senators who are running for the nomination, Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. Chris Dodd, and Sen. Joe Biden, voted against confirming Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and Supreme Court nominees Samuel Alito and John Roberts. All four voted to try to block confirmation of Alito by filibustering his nomination.

When John Edwards served in the Senate in 2003, he joined Clinton, Biden, and Dodd in voting to filibuster the nominations of President Bush’s conservative appeals court nominees such as Miguel Estrada.

Small differences?
A primary campaign such as 2000 in which the contenders don’t widely diverge on many issues is likely to end up being acrid and personal, as 2000 was.

Accusing Gore of running misleading ads about him, Bradley asked his rival during a debate before the New Hampshire primary, “Why should we believe you will tell the truth as president, if you don’t tell the truth as a candidate?”

Bradley likened Gore to Richard Nixon. “When Al accuses me of negative campaigning, it reminds me of the story about Richard Nixon … [he] was the kind of politician who would chop down a tree and then stand on the stump and give a speech about conservation.” In return, Gore accused Bradley of trying to “manufacture a distinction” about their stands on abortion.

Bradley’s strategy didn’t work: he lost the New Hampshire primary, essentially ending his bid for the nomination.

This year, many analysts see Iraq as the deciding factor in the Democratic contest.

“Candidates debate issues, but they clash on war,” said Jano Cabrera, a Democratic strategist. “While 2008 won’t be a repeat of 1968 — when the nation was torn not just by Vietnam but by a variety of social changes, most prominently the civil rights struggle – the debates this cycle hold the potential to be sharper than any we’ve seen in recent years.”

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

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