The big debuts

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

While for many of us, the presidential campaign started months ago, the contest will truly kick off for a larger portion of the public over the next two weeks.

In a period of eight days, both fields will meet in debates that will be streamed live right here and will air on MSNBC TV. (Click here to suggest a question for the candidates in the debate.)

The Democrats will grapple with each other in South Carolina on April 26 and the Republicans will butt heads at the Reagan Library in California on May 3.

These first debates have the potential to be candidate defining because the tone each candidate sets will be what stays with the media and the politically engaged for some time.  You know what they say about first impressions…

Perhaps no two candidates have more important first impressions to make than Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans and Barack Obama for the Democrats.  Both are the newcomers for their respective parties and both are garnering the lion’s share of attention right now, making them likely top targets of their foes on debate night.

Giuliani a newcomer?
While some may quibble with calling Giuliani a newcomer, I still regard him as new to the Republican Party. After all, this is the same Giuliani who during the 1994 Republican revolution endorsed a Democrat for governor in New York.

Think about that. In the year of the greatest electoral achievement for the GOP (in arguably a generation) Giuliani wasn’t with his party. “The partisan Republican” Giuliani is a new person for me. 

Of all the Republican candidates, Giuliani is likely to garner the most attention on stage on May 3. For one thing, he is the frontrunner. He’s not only tops in every national poll, he’s ahead or even in many polls of the early primary states.

Perhaps most importantly, Giuliani’s got as much money to spend as any of his other foes. He finished merely $1 million behind Romney in cash-on-hand – and if you count Romney’s debt against the cash-on-hand, Giuliani actually comes out on top.

So it’s natural for the guy in first to be the one attacked the most. But with Giuliani, it’s more than just that he’s the guy ahead.

Giuliani is the candidate that has the hardest sell to social conservatives. All of his opponents will frequently bring it up.

Plenty of strategists believe that once Republican activists are reminded of Giuliani’s relatively liberal positions on issues like guns and abortion, Giuliani’s support in the polls will begin to fade a bit.

I happen to think it’s not as cut and dried as that. But this first debate will be a chance for the other Republican candidates to test the theory.

MORE FROM POLITICS

Politics Section Front

Obama rejects criticism on health legislation Dems, White House predict health care success Several prosecutors probing health care deal Report: Campaign finance laws full of loopholes House Democrat announces switch to GOP Obama says ‘the worst is behind us’ Giuliani not running for NY Senate or governor Obama: Vacation plans hinge on health care NYT: Dems face challenge to merge health bills Could Ireland’s budget cuts be a model for U.S.? Politics Section Front   Add Politics headlines to your news reader: