The money chase and the meaning

On to the Republicans...
McCain: Up until last weekend, I was convinced McCain was destined for second place for the quarter. But something about the way McCain softened his financial expectations personally has me nervous that his campaign is having some fun at Mitt Romney's expense. His campaign team members are masters of the expectation game. Apparently $25 million isn't out of the question and that just might top Romney, which would be a moral victory for the once-and-future frontrunner who has a press corps desperate to write "McCain doesn't have it this time" stories.

Romney: No candidate has more so-called "low hanging fruit" than Mitt Romney, which is why so many folks expect him to raise big money. From Boston, to Bainiacs (ex-Bain Capital colleagues) Mormons and Olympic folks, Romney has a lot of rich friends. Frankly, the campaign needs to finish first because the other aspects of the campaign (namely message) have been suffering.

Giuliani: The leanest campaign of the Big Six is Rudy's and therefore it's possible that Rudy finishes third in money raised but second in cash-on-hand which would be a nice feather for the campaign and showcase the spending war and fat payrolls both McCain and Romney are sporting. (BTW: Don't be surprised if one or more of the campaigns delays payroll until after March 31 just to simply boost their cash totals; it's an old trick, but still a good one)

The rest of the GOP field: How many of the second tier will top $5M? My guess is two: Sam Brownback (Small donor base will be more impressive than some think.) and Duncan Hunter (His one-time hold on the Armed Services gavel gives him access to some low-hanging fruit.) The disappointment may be Mike Huckabee, who, if he had Romney's personal connections and pure campaign drive would be a first tier candidate.

Be your own pundit next week with these reports and comment away to me at First Read as to how NBC News should cover the money primary. Some may complain this is too horse racey of a story, but politics is big business and an important business and you can't govern if you don't win.

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

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