The money chase and the meaning

Chuck Todd Chief White House correspondent and political director • Profile

WASHINGTON - In just days, the insider political world is going to get a glimpse of which one of the presidential candidates are truly contenders and which ones are potentially pretenders.

This Saturday marks the end of the 1st quarter fundraising period in the presidential race. Candidates have been jockeying for weeks in the hopes that whatever number they report, it gets showcased in the best possible light.

What I want to do is give folks a viewer's guide to interpreting the reports.  How to collectively look at the totals and then what to look for in each campaign.

First, the most significant news may be the simple fact that the Democratic field, collectively, will outraise the Republican field. Bush outraised the Dems combined during the lead up to the ‘04 primaries. The GOP frontrunners outraised the Dem frontrunners in ’00 and, frankly, it was never that close in any previous election for an open presidency contest.  Republicans traditionally raised and spent more money than Democrats on presidential races. Well, the tide may have turned.

Does this mean the Democratic fundraising base is now bigger than the GOP base? Possibly, but I'd chalk it up to simple enthusiasm. Democrats are more excited about their presidential choices than Republicans.

Also, the actual dollar amounts being raised by individual candidates is truly unbelievable. It's possible that six candidates could raise over $20 million in the first quarter. Six!?!?!  What I wouldn't give to be running an advance campaign business in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Interactive Analyzing the 2008 presidential field

The ginormous fundraising success begs the question of whether money is finite anymore. One could argue that it simply isn't. It's a commodity that, once critical mass is achieved by a candidate, is easy to get. It has opened up the process and, frankly, showed the relative weakness of the political party establishments. Think about it. Under the system of 20 years ago, Hillary Clinton and John McCain would be considered unstoppable. Now? They could still be the nominees, but if they win, it won't be because they bought it.

Now, for a quick rundown of what to look for regarding each candidate.

First the Democrats...
Clinton: Thanks to $11 million in leftover senate funds, there's no doubt who will be the cash Queen of the Quarter. The questions that remain with her money include: 1) How big will the gap be between Hillary and Obama. 2) How fat is her payroll? And for those Clintonistas complaining about the absurd expectations some of us have in regards money, you have just one person to blame: ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe. His donor bullying combined with $1 million per Hillraiser bragging had many of us early on convinced Hillary would average $50 million a quarter. Maybe that's unfair, but Terry can be a salesman to both positive and negative results. The gut says her number, minus general election money and the transfer will be in the low 30s. Toss in those other two categories and she might get to $50 million for the quarter.

Obama: Something tells me we're in for a surprise. Maybe not in total raised (though $25-30M isn't out of the question). It's the total number of donors that will make folks stand up and take notice. If he has more total donors and is within $5 million of Hillary overall, then we may have to start referring to both of them as "co-frontrunners."

Edwards: In a vacuum, the Edwards camp seems to be quite pleased with their fundraising. Remember, in '03 Edwards won the first money quarter with nearly $7.5 million raised. It's likely he'll more than double that number and yet still finish behind Hillary and Obama. It will be possible to track some of the post-Elizabeth announcement money when the report is officially filed April 15.

The rest of the Dem field: The battle for fourth place will be interesting if the campaign that finishes fourth is closer to Edwards than fifth. Smart money is on Chris Dodd to finish fourth thanks to his golden insurance and banking gavel. But keep an eye on Bill Richardson's totals. That guy is a tireless campaigner and he may do better than we think. Frankly, it's possible all of the second tier Dems raise $5 million+, a truly remarkable feat, given that just two did it in 2003-04.

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

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