Right said Fred

Chuck Todd Political Director • E-mail

WASHINGTON - Just how unstable is the GOP presidential field? So unstable that a retired senator who hasn't been in office in nearly six years can show a tiny bit of interest and literally shake up the race overnight.

Rumors of a Fred Thompson candidacy have been circulating for months, though many of us didn't put a lot of stock into them because he seemed to do nothing to grow the speculation. That is, he did nothing until this week.

Thompson's now public interest is bad news for all three frontrunners, but specifically the two candidates who have been vying for conservative base love -- Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

Since this '08 campaign began in earnest, both primary fields have had the same dynamic: one institutional frontrunner (John McCain for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats) with a handful of challengers seeking to become the chief alternative to the institutional leader.

The Democratic campaign is, so far, staying on script with Clinton maintaining her frontrunner status and Barack Obama and John Edwards establishing themselves as the frontrunners in the anti-Hillary primary.

New heir apparent?
The Republican side is still very fluid and until this week, it was on the verge of producing a new frontrunner in Giuliani.

But as many know, there's been a certain level of discomfort among key conservative constituencies with not just McCain, but Giuliani and Romney as well.

Of the two anti-McCain frontrunners, Giuliani appeared to be making the most progress. He was proving to be someone who could be very strong in a general election and starting to make conservatives more comfortable with him on the social front by talking up the idea of appointing "strict constructionist" judges. The phrase "strict constructionist," of course, is a key code phrase for the pro-life community. 

And Giuliani’s poll position has only been getting stronger of late – so strong, in fact, that one could sense a shift in the thinking of the political elite that perhaps it was time to crown Giuliani with McCain’s frontrunner crown.

Interactive Analyzing the 2008 presidential field

But doubts remain about Giuliani. The recent revelation that he has an uneasy relationship with his college-age son plays into an old stereotype of Rudy regarding his personal life. In a vacuum, the fact that a son isn't crazy about a step-parent isn't exactly breaking news. But because Rudy has a history of family issues, it could become a bigger problem for him.

So perhaps it is no coincidence that within a week of renewed doubts about Giuliani's personal life, Thompson chimed in with interest in running.

Clearly, Thompson's trial balloon was designed to see how easy it would be for him to assemble a campaign team and raise the necessary money. One true early test for Thompson will be to find out how many Giuliani and Romney folks reach out to him.

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