Laying odds on the 12 ‘American Idol’ finalists

Wild Cards
Gina Glocksen, 22, Naperville , Ill.: Glocksen’s best-case scenario is to be thought of as a female version of Chris Daughtry: The rocker who maintains her voting bloc well into the competition. She’s not as far along as Daughtry was at this stage last year, but she’s the only woman in the competition with that vocal style, and that will help. She’s also scoring well with her banter with host Ryan Seacrest, and personality plays a role in how long people stay.
Best-case scenario: Glocksen makes it through the early rounds, stays alive as the early leaders pick each other off, and sneaks into the final three. After that, it’s anyone’s ballgame.
Worst-case scenario: She tries to sing ballads, or softer songs, and gets eliminated early. Or she keeps on rocking and gets voted off anyway because there aren’t enough rock fans to make any contestant a winner (see: Bice, Bo and Daughtry, Chris). Of course, there are enough rock fans to make Daughtry’s album No. 1 on the best seller-list.
Prognosis: Glocksen makes it into late April or early May before falling in heartbreaking fashion. But her margin for error is small enough at this stage that she could go a lot sooner.

Blake Lewis, 25, Bothell , Wash.: Lewis walks the line between gimmick and good. If he’s a beatboxer who also sings, that will get old relatively quickly. If he’s a singer who adds a little beatboxing riff every couple of weeks, that may be the edge that keeps him around until the end. The judges can’t seem to make up their minds what they want out of Lewis. Can the voters?
Best-case scenario: Lewis is strong enough that he outlasts the rest of the men and makes it into May.   He then rides the Taylor Hicks personality train all the way to the title.
Worst-case scenario: The beatboxing gets old, and Lewis is sent packing early.
Prognosis: Lewis makes it into the final six, and gets to sing for the “Idol” charity drive.

The Master of Strategery
Phil Stacey, 29, Jacksonville , Fla.: Stacey has done a lot to endear himself to voters; he’s a military guy by trade, he has a cute baby daughter whose birth he famously missed to audition, he comes across as a nice person and he’s a decent vocalist. However, based on last week’s rendition of LeAnn Rimes’ “I Need You,” he’s not nearly as good as he thinks he is. If he plays to his strengths, he could last a long time  but another misguided attempt like that last one will put him in the bottom three early.
Best-case scenario: Stacey could last a long time if he picks the right songs. His vocals aren’t any worse than the rest of the men, though that’s damning with faint praise.
Worst-case scenario: He overreaches again, picks a song that doesn’t play to his strengths or that he can’t handle, and gets voted off early.
Prognosis: A middle-of-the-pack singer, Stacey will last a few weeks before being voted off.

Not Living Up to His Potential
Brandon Rogers, 28, North Hollywood, Calif.: Like Melinda Doolittle, Rogers entered the competition experienced in singing background vocals but not as a lead performer. Unlike Doolittle, he hasn’t been able to find his rhythm on center stage. He might be the most talented male vocalist left in the competition, but he’s running out of time to show it.
Best-case scenario: Rogers returns to the form he showed at his first audition and rockets to the top of the list of male contenders.
Worst-case scenario: Another bland performance gets him kicked off opening week.
Prognosis: Rogers can’t get it together in time to make it out of March.

Trying to Outlast Curfew
Jordin Sparks, 17, Glendale , Ariz.: Sparks has been very good so far, particularly in the last semifinal round where she rocked out to lead off the show. She has the talent to go far, and a fun personality that won’t hurt. But in the recent past, teenagers have had a tougher time maintaining their level of performance than the more experienced singers.
Best-case scenario: It’ll be a long time before Sparks is voted off on talent alone, giving her a great shot to build up support. Her father was an NFL cornerback and probably has good advice on dealing with pressure and media scrutiny.
Worst-case scenario: The judges’ advice can be wildly different week-to-week, which has tended to mess with the confidence of the younger women. Can Sparks handle the strain?
Prognosis: Sparks could last a long time, but the real test will come when she gets her first  random criticism from the judges on her song choice, or the admonition to “act younger” or “stop looking like a teenager in a talent show.” If she can surge through that, she’ll be fine.

The Who?
Haley Scarnato, 24, San Antonio , Texas: OK, it was a cheap shot of Simon to say he didn’t remember her name (although the fact that he also didn’t recognize songs by 311 and Pearl Jam may mean he just has some short-term memory issues), but Scarnato hasn’t done anything yet to set herself apart from the field. Randy said that she lacked the “Yo” factor — Jackson-speak for a sense of pizzazz. It’s tough to go very far without it.
Best-case scenario: Scarnato at least looks like a pop star, and isn’t a terrible vocalist. If she can skate through another week or two, she may catch her footing — the weakness of the guys makes that entirely possible.
Worst-case scenario: She’s clearly the worst of the six women left in the competition, and has a long way to go to pass them all.
Prognosis: Scarnato doesn’t have much of a chance.

The New Kevin Covais
Sanjaya Malakar, 17, Federal Way, Wash.: It’s the least surprising surprise in “Idol” history that Malakar is still around. Every season, one teenage male lasts a lot longer than his talent should allow, because he’s a nice guy and callers feel sorry for him. Last year, Kevin Covais had to outlast a couple of rivals in the semifinals to get that honor. Since Malakar was the only teenager among the 12 male semifinalists, he sailed into the finals despite sounding like someone’s little brother who got hold of a karaoke machine and some dress-up clothes.
Best-case scenario: Teen sensation John Stevens outlasted future Oscar-winner Jennifer Hudson in the show’s third season, so it’s possible Malakar could be around a long time.
Worst-case scenario: He’s the least ready of the 12 finalists for stardom, and it’s not even that close. If voting is based on performance alone, he’ll go early.
Prognosis: It’s tough to see Malakar lasting much longer. He might be the first finalist to go.

Craig Berman is a writer in Washington, D.C.

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