Laying odds on the 12 ‘American Idol’ finalists

As “American Idol” heads into the homestretch, the 11-week period in which the field of finalists drops from 12 to one, it’s apparent that the women have the early lead on the men. But that could change in a hurry.

For all of Simon’s admonitions that “this is a singing competition” — something in his contract must require him to say that twice a week — it’s not quite that simple. If the goal was simply to find the best singer and give them a record deal, there wouldn’t be theme weeks, and we’d never see anyone trying to cover a Broadway show tune or 1950s song. They would let everyone sing the styles they were comfortable with, and the voters would pick whoever sounded the best.

But that would be a lot less entertaining.

At this point, the viewers know that LaKisha Jones and Melinda Doolittle can belt out rhythm and blues vocals with the best of them, Gina Glocksen can rock, Blake Lewis can beatbox, Chris Sligh can banter, and Sanjaya Malakar can’t do much of anything besides hula.  The winner may be determined by whether Jones can sing country songs, Doolittle ’90s rock, Glocksen and Lewis Broadway standards, Sligh some ’90s grunge, and Malakar — well, anything.

“Idol” is about getting the contestants out of their comfort zone as much as it is finding the best talent. The theme weeks, the harshness of some of the judges’ comments, the weekly pressure to perform doesn’t always make for great music. But as the ratings prove, it’s always good TV.

Early Favorites
LaKisha Jones, 27, Fort Meade , Md.: The judges love Jones, and with good reason. She’s been great every week, has one of the most powerful voices in the competition, and comes across with the outgoing personality that helps win votes. Moreover, it’s hard not to root for a single mom looking for her big break. She has both the talent and the intangibles to make a serious run at the crown.
Best-case scenario: She’s second to none in terms of talent, though Melinda Doolittle is right there with her.
Worst-case scenario: Doolittle and Stephanie Edwards have similar vocal styles, so any decrease in performance will be very noticeable.
Prognosis: Jones is the early leader in the clubhouse.

Melinda Doolittle, 29, Brentwood , Tenn .: Doolittle has been a backup singer throughout her musical career, but is taking advantage of the spotlight. Like Jones, she’s been a star since her first audition, and also appears to be gaining confidence every week. She began the competition with a body language that indicated she wondered if she belonged, but she’s shown that she can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the competition.
Best-case scenario: Like Jones, Doolittle comes up with big performances every week. She’s experienced in singing before crowds, and it doesn’t look as if the bright lights scare her.
Worst-case scenario: Also like Jones, she’s one of three strong R&B singers in the competition, and all are very good. Any dropoff will be hard to overcome.
Prognosis: Doolittle is a good bet to last a long time, and could easily win it all.

Best Boy
Chris Richardson, 22, Chesapeake , Va.: At his first audition, the judges compared Richardson’s looks to Justin Timberlake. While he’s not there yet in terms of vocals, Richardson is the closest thing the men have to a pop music star in this competition. He looks the part, and for very brief stretches he sounds the part. That’s not enough to beat the top women, but it does make him the leader among a mediocre field of men.
Best-case scenario: In his ideal world, Richardson gets the swooning-girl vote and enough of the rest of viewer support to win it all.
Worst-case scenario: Time may reveal Richardson to be more Ace Young than Justin Timberlake, and he therefore exits in the middle rounds.
Prognosis: Richardson makes it into May as the last man standing.

Dark Horses

Slide show   Season 6 of ‘Idol’ The votes — and the surprises — are adding up and the 'American Idol' hopefuls now number 6.

Stephanie Edwards, 19, Savannah , Ga.: Edwards is in a precarious position, having been called out on stage to sweat out her fate last week in the semifinals. But she got a reprieve, and has a strong enough voice that she can rebound and resume her spot among the contenders. The fact that Sabrina Sloan was eliminated last week probably helps her, since they’re similar enough vocally that there may have been some voting overlap.
Best-case scenario: Edwards is young, talented, and attractive. That’s the traditional recipe for the female “Idol” contenders.
Worst-case scenario: Teenagers have had problems lately scoring well in the competition. She’ll need to show she can rebound from last week’s scare and regain her rhythm.
Prognosis: Edwards is talented enough to challenge the leaders into the later stages of the competition, but she’s handicapped by being just the third-best in her genre right now. Any split votes hurt her unless she can make up ground in a hurry.

Chris Sligh, 28, Greenville , S.C.: Singer, personality, or both? Sligh’s been the hit of the men so far, with the personality and confidence to tweak the judges and the voice to make him immune from too much criticism. He also said in an early heat that he was trying to think strategically in order to win. It sounds like he thinks he’s playing “Survivor,”  but really, isn’t he? The ultimate ambition is to outsing, outlast and outvote the opposition, after all. His musical choices have been the least mainstream of the performers, which helps because he’s not being compared as much to the original, but also won’t leave him much margin for error if he falls flat.
Best-case scenario: Taylor Hicks won it all last season. Why couldn’t Sligh?
Worst-case scenario: “Idol” voters rarely favor the same type of singer in back-to-back seasons. Is Sligh too close to Taylor Hicks’ act to make it into May?
Prognosis: Sligh makes it into the final six, and there’s widespread outrage when he’s eliminated.

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