Todd: GOP searches for their inner Dean

ON THE TRAIL

By Chuck Todd

Political Director

updated 8:19 a.m. ET March 9, 2007

Chuck Todd Political Director • E-mail

WASHINGTON - There's an odd sense of déjà vu about the 2008 Republican presidential primary campaign.

For a while, I couldn't place where I'd seen something like this before, but then, thanks to Jim Gilmore (R), it hit me.

In an attempt to jump-start his fledgling (and that's being generous) bid, the former Virginia governor unveiled a web video to CPAC attendees declaring himself to be the true conservative in the race. In the video, Gilmore questions the conservative credentials of the GOP's three front-runners (John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney) with the predictable gripes. In closing, Gilmore proclaims that he wants to be the candidate that represents the "Republican wing of the Republican Party."

For those who don't remember, one of Howard Dean's early applause lines during the last presidential campaign was his parroting of the late Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) by claiming he was from the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." At the time, it was Dean's not-so-subtle shot at the then-better known and better organized front-runners, none of whom were attuned to the Democratic base, particularly about the war in Iraq.

Fast-forward four years and it's striking how many of the same things that dogged the Democratic presidential field in 2004 are dogging the current Republican field.

Consider:

No consensus front-runner:
At the same point in 2003, the Democrats' organizational leader appeared to be Sen. John Kerry, the money leader was Sen. John Edwards and the poll leader was Sen. Joe Lieberman. Howard Dean was only starting to gain traction. In the current Republican field, the organizational front-runner appears to be McCain, the financial front-runner is Mitt Romney and the one topping the polls is Giuliani.

If Dean was just being identified as a potential dark-horse, top-tier candidate at this point last cycle, then his equivalent is not Gilmore, but former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Gingrich seems to be the one most likely to have a Dean-like moment in the campaign, assuming he runs. Like Dean, he's got a combustible personality that can be compelling at times and a turn-off at others. During the last presidential primary season, Dean was interesting to Democrats in small doses; the more exposure he received, the higher his negative ratings rose. It's not hard to imagine Gingrich experiencing a similar fate -- and one he'll have to figure out how to deal with should he get in.

Interactive Analyzing the 2008 presidential field

Best candidate on the sidelines:
In 2004, the two leading Democrats in early polling decided not to run. They were former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Given the performance of the candidates that year, either Gore or Clinton probably would have forced Bush into a tougher race than Kerry did -- or at least given Democrats something more to get excited about. This cycle, the GOP's two most compelling potential candidates are arguably Jeb Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

For different reasons, neither seems interested in running. The former Florida governor likely harbors presidential ambitions, but his last name is kryptonite for 2008 -- even among Republicans. Rice probably just doesn't have those ambitions. It's hard to see how any direct member of the Bush administration could gain traction this cycle. Still, the visible frustration among the conservative elite has us wondering if a "draft Jeb" or draft-somebody movement gets real consideration at some point this year.

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

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