2008 is not one campaign

ON THE TRAIL

By Chuck Todd

Political Director

updated 3:34 p.m. ET Feb. 28, 2007

Chuck Todd Political Director • E-mail

WASHINGTON - "It's just so early" has become a pretty common refrain in response to the fast start of the 2008 presidential campaign.

But it's really not that early at all. The starting line moved up because the finish line moved first; the front-loaded primary calendar that has most states voting on or before Feb. 5, 2008, is forcing the campaign to switch into gear now.

The '08 presidential race should be viewed as two distinct campaigns. Previous primary campaigns have bled seamlessly into the general, which in turn has made the election cycle feel never-ending. For instance, the 2004 campaign, which started full-bore in March 2003, was a solid 20-month continuous campaign because it was all about the general election. The Democratic primary focused on Bush and beating Bush, so the looming general election shone brightly on the party.

This cycle is different. It has two distinct "elections," and candidates who recognize that and stop worrying about the general might benefit more than they realize.

Of the "Big Six" presidential candidates, John Edwards (D), John McCain (R) and Mitt Romney (R) are running predominantly primary campaigns.

For Edwards and McCain, who both are still in fairly good standing with the general electorate, this makes perfect sense. It's the old Nixonian adage: Run to the base in the primaries and to the center for the general. Edwards, thanks to his Southern accent, and McCain, thanks to his 2000 campaign, have established the perception of "electability."

Romney's gambit is a bit trickier, because he isn't well-established nationally, and his move to the right leaves him vulnerable to the "flip-flopper" tag. It's harder for him to claim he's "evolved" rather than just pandering.

The two who are attempting to run the same campaign, both in the primary and the general, are Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Strategists for both have likely calculated that their pasts or biographies have given them permanent liberal bona fides. The thing they have to worry about is being viewed as polarizing liberals in the general -- so both are trying to run toward the middle now. Clinton is doing it via foreign policy and her husband, and Obama is doing it rhetorically, because his record certainly puts him squarely in the liberal column.

Interactive Analyzing the 2008 presidential field

The candidate who's having it both ways, for now, is Rudy Giuliani (R). The former New York City mayor is busy courting conservatives but has yet to fully pander. His "strict constructionist" rhetoric about judges, however, indicates that he may begin a full-fledged conservative pander at some point, and he can do it without losing the center. Like McCain and Edwards, Giuliani has deep-rooted moderate credentials for a general election. Three things will always allow him to be perceived as a moderate: geography (outside of the Buckleys, have you ever met a conservative who lived in New York City?), gay rights and abortion.

As much as I like to be a backseat driver when it comes to campaign strategies, the decisions by the current Big Six to go down the primary/general roads they've chosen make sense for each one.

If Clinton moves too far to the left in the primaries, she'll become the stereotype conservatives have made her out to be for years and thus be unelectable in the general. Edwards tried the electable card last time and it didn't work, so he needs to find true believers if he's going to overcome the Clinton-Obama juggernaut. McCain and Romney can't become the strong general election candidates many believe they'll be without winning the nomination first. Obama's biggest liability is experience, so the more he acts presidential, the better for him in the long run. And then there's Giuliani, who is walking the tightrope as well as anyone right now.

Picking the president — the candidates Click a name below to visit that candidate’s MSNBC page • Joe Biden                 • Sam Brownback     • Hillary Clinton          • Chris Dodd • John Edwards         • Rudy Giuliani           • Mike Gravel              • Duncan Hunter • Mike Huckabee        • Dennis Kucinich     • John McCain           • Barack Obama • Ron Paul                    • Bill Richardson      • Mitt Romney            • Tom Tancredo • Fred Thompson To subscribe to a candidate page RSS feed, click here.

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