Theory versus observation in astronomy

By Leonard David

Senior Space Writer

updated 3:01 p.m. ET Feb. 5, 2007

BOULDER, Colo. - There is ongoing theoretical debate regarding how and where to spot other worlds circling distant stars. And there are new ground and in-space observational tools that are locking into real-time data.

Presently, 200-plus known extrasolar planets have been found — mostly huge, gas-giants like Jupiter within our own solar system of Sun-orbiting planets. Given these discoveries — just within the last 10 years or so — under what conditions can we expect terrestrial planets to crop up? Moreover, just how common are habitable planets in the universe?

Planet scouting scientists met here January 26-28 at a media workshop sponsored by the University of Colorado’s Center for Astrobiology to share theories as well as new observational information.

While the planetary plotting thickens, it’s also a stew of opposite conclusions, assumptions, talk of new or weird physics, along with downright uncertainties. It all adds up to a collegial clash between those that predict contrasted to observational findings.

What’s now taking place is that extrasolar planet researchers are shifting into high gear given ground and space-based tools. That being the case, will theories on spotting Earth-like worlds be overtaken by actual observation?

“Absolutely,” responded Alan Boss, a research staff member at the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Terrestrial Magnetism in Washington, D.C.

“Theorists spent several decades debating the formation of our solar system, where the basic physical characteristics had been known for centuries…number of planets, masses, separations, etc. That debate has now been revived and revitalized in the last decade by the ever-increasing information we are learning from extrasolar planetary systems,” Boss explained to SPACE.com.

Boss said that the focus of the debate right now is on giant planets — because those are the ones that have been found to date in greatest abundance.

Theorists are parasites
But last December’s liftoff of Europe’s Convection, Rotation and planetary Transits telescope — along with next year’s slated takeoff of NASA’s Kepler mission — signal near future discoveries of hot and warm super-Earths and habitable Earths, Boss suggested.

“We can expect an equally contentious debate over how to explain their formation and orbital evolution, though perhaps a debate that is not quite so contentious as the current debate over giant planet formation, given the two wildly different formation mechanisms being considered for them,” Boss said.

A theory that explains the previously known might be plausible, Boss continued, but unless it can predict the unknown, it is of little value — and even then may eventually be proven incorrect by further observations.

“Theorists truly are parasites…and derive their sustenance from the growing body of observational evidence about other planetary systems,” Boss concluded.

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