Most dangerous destinations 2007

New to our list this year: Sri Lanka, Chad and Lebanon. Lush tropical beauty made Sri Lanka a popular holiday destination, but a ceasefire between the government and the separatist Tamil Tigers broke down last year. While foreigners are not directly targeted, the risk of becoming collateral damage is rising in the north and northeast. Chad has seen ethnic conflicts spillover from the neighboring Darfur region of Sudan and is also experiencing tension between its own government and rebel groups. And while hostilities between Lebanon and Israel ended last August, political tensions within Lebanon have been on the rise.

Because oil and other natural resource companies have to go where the riches are, they make up a big percentage of the clientele for risk consulting and security companies, but other sectors are in growing need of their services too. As mobile telephone use expands in the poorest and most conflict-prone areas of the world, telecom companies are increasingly doing business there, Smither says.

Triple Canopy’s main customer is the U.S. government, but it’s also focusing on gaining commercial customers, especially in the oil, mining and shipping industries, says CEO Lee Van Arsdale. It opened its new Nigeria office based on a simple business equation: Lots of Western workers plus massive political instability add up to demand. About 120 foreign oil workers were kidnapped in Nigeria in 2006, and violence by armed groups is on the rise. Though Nigeria doesn’t make our most dangerous places list (there’s a lot of competition), Control Risks’ Smither also cites it as a hot spot in danger of worsening this year.

New Terrorist Targets
One big change taking place internationally, according to Smither, is that terrorists are increasingly focusing on so-called “soft” targets--unprotected tourists, commuters and other civilians. In the past, embassies, government buildings and airlines were among the most common terrorist targets, but they’ve all stepped up security in recent years. In response, terrorists seeking maximum damage on a limited budget increasingly seek to hit civilians.

“The soft target is a favorite of armed terrorists who, unlike al-Qaida, have limited means,” says Smither.

Another danger on the rise is kidnapping.

“It’s really grown as a cottage industry,” says Triple Canopy’s Van Arsdale. “It used to be just Colombia, but now it could happen on any continent, and not just for political purposes but for profit.”

Watch Yourself
What to do if you have to work in a danger zone? Risk consultancies offer their clients extensive pre-trip advice and help track and protect employees in-country.

Van Arsdale suggests you familiarize yourself with the most current information on where you’re going--because sometimes out-of-date facts can be more dangerous than none at all. (Last year’s rebel leader could be this year’s president.)

He also recommends varying your daily route so that potential attackers can’t predict when you’ll be in particular place, dispensing with obvious signs of wealth and if possible traveling in a group. Control Risks provides a list of general advice that includes suggestions such as memorizing important local phrases and avoiding alcohol intake, which, no surprise, tends to make people more vulnerable to attack.

Travelers to potential danger zones should also always check the State Department’s Web site for the latest travel warnings before departure. The State Department currently has standing warnings on 31 countries, including Iraq and Afghanistan, but also places that make Western headlines much less, like the Philippines.

To determine which places were the most dangerous, we asked Control Risks and iJet to provide us with their watch lists of high-risk countries. IJet evaluates countries across six categories, including crime and civil unrest, and assigns each country a rating of one to five, with five being the most severe. Control Risks assesses countries for overall security risks, specific terrorism risks and travel risks and rates each of these categories on a five-point scale. “Extreme” and “high” are the first- and second-most dangerous ratings.

We came up with 13 countries that get the highest rating from either Control Risks, iJet or both. The State Department has also issued warnings against travel to all of these places. If you plan to visit any of them, we hope you are equipped with the latest body armor and have an excellent life insurance policy--and that you get plenty of danger pay.

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