U.S.-Iran tensions could trigger accidental war

Iran expert Ray Takeyh said the risks are all the greater because Tehran has an “unhealthy” disregard for American power, which “enhances the prospect of a miscalculation.”

Prof. Gary Sick, a leading authority on Iran, believes the U.S. is seeking to divert world attention from the crisis in Iraq and organize a coalition of Israel and conservative Sunni Arab states to confront Iran.

“I see this as a very dangerous long-term policy because it promotes the idea that Sunnis and Shiites should be distrustful of each other, and I think that could come back and bite us later on,” he said.

Nuclear argument
Iran and the U.S. also are in dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program. The United States accuses Iran of secretly developing atomic weapons — an allegation Tehran denies. Iran’s defiant refusal to suspend uranium enrichment prompted the U.N. Security Council to impose limited economic sanctions.

The U.S. has also beefed up support for Lebanon’s government in its power struggle with Hezbollah, the Shiite militia that Washington accuses of acting in Iran’s interests.

But Lee Feinstein of the Council on Foreign Relations said the U.S. was finding it hard “to calibrate its message” to distinguish “between a stern message and a warning of attack.”

The war of words has raised fears among both Democrats and Republicans in Congress that the United States and Iran are drifting toward armed conflict at a time when America is struggling against determined foes in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It has also unnerved the Iraqi government, many of whose members have close ties to Iran.

“We have told the Iranians and the Americans, ‘We know that you have a problem with each other but we’re asking you, please, solve your problems outside of Iraq,”’ Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, told CNN on Wednesday. “We do not want the American forces to take Iraq as a base to attack Iran ... we will not accept Iran using Iraq to attack American forces. But does this exist? It exists and I assure you it exists.”

'Neither side wants a fight'
As the rhetoric grows more strident, a U.S. military official in the gulf likened the U.S.-Iran standoff to the buildup in hostility in Europe before World War I, when the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne triggered a tragic war that engulfed a continent.

“A mistake could be made and you could end up in something that neither side ever really wanted, and suddenly it’s August 1914 all over again,” the U.S. officer said on condition of anonymity, because of the sensitivity of the issue. “I really believe neither side wants a fight.”

Iranian coast guard vessels recently veered into territorial waters on the Arab side of the gulf, an event that could have been viewed as either a mistake or a provocation, the officer said. Both sides are on tenterhooks. “A boat crosses a line ... but what does it mean? You’ve got to be very careful about overreacting,” the officer said.

Even if Iran pulled back from Iraq’s conflict, it might not end the country’s violence, said Kenneth M. Pollack, research director at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

“The truth is that Iraq is a mess. It is in a state of low-level civil war. And all of these groups are largely self-motivated,” he said on the Council on Foreign Relations Web site. “But its much easier to blame it on the Iranians.”

In Tehran, political analyst Hermidas Bavand said U.S. force increases were leading many Iranians to believe Washington is looking to pick a fight.

“It’s an extremely dangerous situation,” Bavand said. “I don’t think Tehran wants war under any circumstances. But there might be an accidental event that could escalate into a large confrontation.”

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